Three weeks into the college football season and what we've learned is that preseason rankings don't mean much.
Louisville has climbed all the way to no. 3 in the polls following last Saturday's 63-20 beatdown of then no. 2 Florida State.
Meanwhile, three teams that started the year in the top five (Florida State, Oklahoma, LSU) have gone a combined 5-4 so far and tumbled out of the top 10.
That all leads us to this weekend, which is really the start of conference play in earnest. Over the next two months we'll figure out who the legitimate contenders are and who was overvalued by early polls.
Without further ado, here are my picks for Separation Saturday. Overall record: 25-8 (9-3 last week)
PENN STATE AT 4 MICHIGAN (-18) Saturday 2:30pm
Pick: Michigan
The Wolverines got a bit of a wake up call last week, falling behind Colorado 14-0 early before running off 45 of the game's final 59 points to win easily. I think Michigan will be refocused and ready for the conference opener. Make sure to watch Jabrill Peppers, who may just be the best athlete in college football as he currently leads the country in the almost preposterous double of tackles for loss and punt return yards.
12 GEORGIA AT 23 OLE MISS (-7) Saturday 11am
Pick: Ole Miss
Ole Miss fans won't be able to feel confident until the clock strikes 0:00 after the second half performance of the Rebels against both Florida State and Alabama. But things are not as bad on the Grove as the 1-2 record appears. Remember, the Rebels' two losses came to the teams ranked in the top five at the time they played. Chad Kelly is still the most proven quarterback in the SEC and that speedy Ole Miss defense will get after UGA true freshman Jacob Eason in his first career road game.
11 WISCONSIN AT 8 MICHIGAN STATE (-5.5) Saturday 11am
Pick: Michigan State
Mark Dantonio continues to build one of the most impressive programs in the country in East Lansing. The Spartans proved they are reloading and not rebuilding with last week's 36-28 win at Notre Dame in which they essentially pounded the will out of the Irish with a physical running game and a suffocating defense. Wisconsin is 3-0 but that win over LSU doesn't look quite as great now as it did, and last week's 23-17 squeaker past Georgia State is cause for concern headed to the banks of the Red Cedar to face Sparty.
19 FLORIDA AT 14 TENNESSEE (-6.5) Saturday 2:30pm
Pick: Florida
Every part of me wants to believe that this is the week Tennessee puts it all together and finally looks like the team we see on paper. But right now the Vols remind me of last year's Ohio State team; a squad loaded with talent that for whatever reason just couldn't quite put it all together. When Florida shocked Tennessee in Knoxville two years ago I vowed to not pick the Vols again until it snapped the streak, and the Gators rally from 13 down in the fourth quarter last year in the Swamp did nothing to change my mind about that. The key to me will be if Tennessee can get its running game going against a nasty front seven of the Florida defense. Based on what we've seen this year I don't think they can, so I'm taking the Gators to run the streak to 12 in a low scoring defensive slugfest.
VANDERBILT AT WESTERN KENTUCKY (-8) Saturday 3:30pm
Pick: WKU
For the second time in three weeks Vandy faces a tough matchup against a non-power five regional opponent. The Commodores handled their business against Middle Tennessee, but may face an even tougher task Saturday as the first SEC team to ever visit Bowling Green. Jeff Brohm's explosive Hilltoppers' offense hasn't skipped a beat after losing Brandon Doughty to the NFL, replacing him at QB with the capable Mike White. Brohm's offenses continue to be creatively aggressive and his teams' win, which should make him a hot candidate for some big name school looking for an exciting, young coach later this fall. Beating Vanderbilt for a second straight year will do nothing but help boost his rising star.
18 LSU (-3.5) AT AUBURN Saturday 5pm
Pick: LSU
I like what I've seen from Danny Etling quarterbacking the Bayou Bengals. If he can open up the field with a competent passing game that will give Leonard Fournette more room to run. Fournette ran all over Auburn last year, but Kevin Steele's defense is much improved and this contest is on the Plains. LSU pulls out a close game on the road.
OKLAHOMA STATE AT 16 BAYLOR (-8.5) Saturday 6:30pm
Pick: Baylor
Baylor is unbeaten, but will get its first real test against the 'pokes. The key to this game will be OSU's ability to generate turnovers against the Bears. Baylor put up 45 points and 700 yards of offense with a third string quarterback playing most of the way last year in Stillwater. Barring turnovers and mistakes, I think the Bears win another shootout.
7 STANFORD (-3) AT UCLA Saturday 7pm
Pick: Stanford
Christian McCaffrey exploded onto the college football scene last year against the Bruins with an eye-popping 369 total yards, including a Stanford record 246 rushing yards. McCaffrey often gets overlooked in the Heisman race because he plays on the west coast, often late at night. On Saturday he gets a primetime showcase against one of the other PAC-12 favorites and he will take full advantage. And don't forget about the Stanford defense against UCLA QB Josh Rosen. The Cardinal D has been impressive so far against the pass, holding USC All-American receiver Juju Smith-Schuster in check last week.
17 ARKANSAS VS. 10 TEXAS A&M (-6.0) - Arlington, TX Saturday 8pm
Pick: Texas A&M
After a tumultuous offseason, the Aggies seemingly righted the ship and are off to a 3-0 start. OU transfer QB Trevor Knight is completing just a shade above 50 percent of his passes, but also provides the A&M offense a running threat as well as some much needed leadership at the position. And Myles Garrett leads an Aggies' defense that is one of the best in America. They should give Arkansas QB Austin Allen a headache all night.
9 WASHINGTON (-12) AT ARIZONA Saturday 9:30pm
Pick: Washington
It's difficult to know just how good Chris Petersen's Huskies are based on the schedule to this point, but my hunch is pretty good. Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning has been the model of efficiency, completing 72 percent of his passes and throwing for 12 touchdowns against only one interception. It's a bit of a trap game for UW with Stanford and Oregon on the schedule the next two weeks, and Arizona is notoriously tough in the desert, but I believe the Huskies are for real and get the job done.
