CAPITOL VIEW
By Pat Nolan, Senior Vice-President, DVL Seigenthaler Public Relations, a Finn Partners Company
September 4, 2015
THE FINAL DAYS; INSIDE POLITICS; NOT NEUTRAL; CONCERTS AND PRO SPORTS SHOULD MEAN NO GUNS; A FITTING HONOR FOR FYKE
THE FINAL DAYS
Throughout this mayoral campaign, dating back well over a year, I have often felt like I was in a dark room struggling to find the light switch so I could figure out exactly what was going on, particularly in the voters’ minds.
Finally this past week, we finally made some progress in that area with the first, outside (non-campaign), scientific, professionally done poll commissioned by THE TENNESSEAN (released September 3) and conducted by the Public Policy Polling group. Thank you! I am sure the survey has its faults like any poll in a day when it’s hard to reach or get people to participate by landline or cell phone. And that can impact poll results.
But now I’ll take it. The results already confirm what I already felt just watching the campaign and talking with voters. It’s a very close contest, a dead heat (Megan Barry 46%, David Fox 45%) that will come down to who get their vote out the best.
You can read about the poll in detail here in these three TENNESSEAN stories….
The TENNESSEAN poll indicates (as I’ve written the past few weeks) that the key deciders in this race will be the African American community, especially how many of them make it to the polls. Clearly the survey shows Barry has an advantage in black support overall and African Americans make up a large part of the remaining 9% undecided. So will they vote? If they do, Barry will be elected mayor. If not, it will be close and its more than possible Fox will win.
From this poll, you can now see why both campaigns have been spending so much time, energy and resources reaching out in the minority community and why this week’s developments on the campaign trail and the hot-button social and other issues now being put forth are so fascinating and important.
The past week began with a day (Monday, August 31) that could turn out to be the most pivotal 24 hours of the entire campaign. It started with news stories that David Fox’s new radio ad in the black community (his second in as many weeks) was attacking not just the candidate but her husband, Vanderbilt professor Bruce Barry, for being “anti-Christian” (said a TENNESSEAN headline.)
You can read the ad copy here:
Fox radio ad 2
(African American female voice):
“What has our community gotten from Megan Barry’s 8 years on Metro Council?
Not a thing.
Have I seen her in our community? No.
Has she added African Americans to leadership positions in Metro government? No.
Has she fixed school overcrowding in Antioch, like she promised? No.
We might see Megan Barry around election time, but when the election is over, she’s gone.
So how do Megan and her husband, Bruce, spend their time, since it’s NOT in the black community?
Well, I’ll tell you.
They’re opposing the National Day of Prayer.
Opposing prayer before high school football games.
Fighting with Christian, faith-based organizations that he called, and I quote, part of the Jesus Industrial Complex.
Can you believe that?
She doesn’t share our values, and Megan Barry doesn’t deserve our vote.”
(David Fox’s voice):
“Paid for Fox for Mayor 2015, Jay Hardcastle, Treasurer.”
The attack on Bruce Barry revolves in part around his work as a writer with THE NASHVILLE SCENE. In particular, the “Jesus Industrial Complex” comment comes from a 2010 column he penned concerning the actions of the Family Action Council of Tennessee. The Barry spouse criticisms also focus on his work as a board member and chair of the Tennessee Chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU). Clearly these kinds of attack and the criticism in the radio ad concerning Megan Barry’s “absence” in the black community are attempts to dissuade minorities from supporting her and perhaps not vote at all in the mayor’s race. Such voter suppression efforts (as the Barry campaign would call it) would clearly hurt her more than Fox.
Barry immediately pushed back big time against the Fox ad. She announced a Monday afternoon news conference to be joined by several key supporters to denounce it. But first she and David Fox had to appear together before the Downtown Rotary Club, Nashville largest civic group. I was the moderator of that forum. Being aware of the budding ad controversy, I advised both candidates I was going to bring the matter up, and with no objections, I did, although Barry brought the issue up on her own during her opening statement to the group.
Before perhaps the largest audience the Downtown Rotary had ever attracted (the group also may be Nashville’s oldest civic club), the Wildhorse Salon was packed. You could also feel the tension in the air between the two candidates even before we even started. I did.
Barry lashed out about the ad saying it was untruthful, sexist and particularly unfair to include spouses. “My family isn’t running for mayor. I am. David is absolutely OK to go after me and my record. But I think going after one’s family crosses the line. Personally I think so. The allegations in the ad, they’re false.
They are not true. But that’s a side piece. When David’s doing this over here, don’t lose sight of the fact that we have a lot of really important issue we need to be talking about and this is just noise.”
Some might find Fox’s charges that his opponent and her spouse are anti-Christian to be odd since he is Jewish, but the candidate told the Rotary Club that views about religion are a fair question.
“I think there is a little hypocrisy issue here, frankly. Everything we’ve done in our ads, whether in print or on radio, is accurate. I’ve knocked on thousands of doors. I’m asked every day about my religion. We talk about it. People are fair to ask about that. In the course of these door knockings, there’s a significant level of discomfort that comes up with Ms. Barry on these issues. It comes up every day. On phrase that was used that “Jesus Industrial Complex thing. Every three or four days someone will mention that, and people with faith take real exception to that.”
THE TENNESSEAN reported the next day (September 1) this verbal exchange and the overall Rotary mayoral forum was “the fiercest confrontation yet” between the two candidates.
But the political stakes and drama continued to rise even higher on Monday afternoon.
Following the Rotary Club forum, the Fox campaign held a news conference outside the Wildhorse to spotlight the endorsement of its candidate by two legendary NASCAR drivers (Darrell Waltrip and Sterling Marlin) as well as support from other local racing dignitaries. A shiny race car sporting the Fox campaign logo was also on display.
Reporters asked questions about that but also wanted to ask more about the now controversial radio ad. But according to a PITH IN THE WIND blog article (September 1), a Fox “spokesman spoke over their questions, saying they (reporters) couldn’t ask Fox about anything unless it had to do with his NASCAR drivers endorsements.”
Really?!!?
Telling the media what it can and can’t ask is dangerous business in a political campaign or for a would-be or current elected official. Many of those running the Fox campaign are from out of state. I guess they don’t know or can’t remember the late former Tennessee Governor Ray Blanton who once refused to entertain anything other than positive questions from reporters? Positive questions is not what Governor Blanton got by the way.
But little did the Fox campaign or reporters know that another, almost shocking campaign development was about to unfold. Megan Barry held her afternoon news conference to further decry the Fox radio ads. Suddenly, former mayoral candidate Howard Gentry, the only African American in the race, appeared, and asked to speak. He said (TENNESSEAN August 31):
“Today I showed up on my own. Even though I talk to Megan every now and then, she didn’t tell me about today. And I feel very confident and comfortable to let you know that I voted for Megan Barry and that she is a person that does care about the issues that effect this (minority) community.”
Gentry did not endorse eight years ago when he finished third and just out of mayoral runoff race which was won by now Mayor Karl Dean (several key Gentry aides did support Dean). There had been no indication Gentry would endorse this time either (after finishing fourth). But then he read the scripts of the Fox radio ad and changed his mind:
“That didn’t sit well with me because I know Megan. You see, I started the homeless commission. I was founding chair and Megan served on the homeless commission with me until I rolled off it…The fact is, she is a person who I feel very comfortable and confident in that I can go to at any point in time and get the result I need. I’m not going to stand in the background any longer. I am going to stand up and do what I do. I support Megan Barry.”
So will Howard Gentry coming out of the background lead to Megan Barry becoming Nashville’s next mayor? It certainly could, given his own strong minority support and his family’s legendary reputation in the black community. But only a few days remain, so the Barry campaign will have to capitalize on this seemingly unexpected opportunity both quickly and wisely.
Barry has received a number of key endorsements during the runoff including former Mayor and Governor Phil Bredesen and one from another former mayoral hopeful Charles Robert Bone. All have shored up her Democratic support especially with moderates and conservatives. But what about the other prominent Democrat who didn’t make the mayoral runoff, businessman Bill Freeman who finished a close third?
A few weeks ago Freeman said he planned to endorse Barry, but changed his mind after a one-on-one meeting. Apparently they could not agree on some staff hirings, appointments and perhaps some policy priorites he wanted Barry to act on. In the wake of the Gentry endorsement, Freeman is still saying he is neutral while he does media interviews (NASHVIILLE BUSINESS JOURNAL calling for new leadership with the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce) and writing a TENNESSEAN op-ed continuing to push the need for better mass transit for Nashville including a regional light rail system and that Davidson County needs to be more aggressive in its competition with surrounding counties for new business (jobs).
If Megan Barry loses the Mayor’s race, and for the first time ever a Republican leaning mayor takes over in Democratic Blue Nashville, the party recriminations will be massive. Will Bill Freeman be among those for whom the political knives will be out?
Meanwhile, Freeman’s business partner Jimmy Webb is endorsing and co-hosting a fundraising breakfast for David Fox next Wednesday morning, the day before the election. Both Freeman and Webb (who usually leans Republican in his politics) deny this late fundraiser is any hint of where Freeman is really leaning. But trust me, some Freeman voters may still interpret it that way.
Speaking of campaign fund raising, the latest disclosure deadline passed this week and both campaigns have released reports. As expected, both received ample support and spent about the same amount of money at over a half million dollars each. Barry did raise more than Fox ($1.1 million plus compared to $750,000+ Both still have money left for the final day. But Barry has more in the bank as well ($578,000 plus compared to $205,000). Part of the new money raised by Barry reportedly came from a fundraiser hosted by Governor Bredesen and Charles Robert Bone which brought in $50,000.
On the TV front this week, Barry put up a new (final?) ad. You can see it here.
This spot not that different from her previous ad except the attack on Fox for being a Wall Street hedge fund manager is done by the candidate herself this time not by a narrator. She also takes a shot that
what Fox is doing is “not the Nashville Way.” Barry raises for the first time in the runoff campaign, charges that Fox opposes a minimum wage increase. Raising the minimum wage was a big issue in the general election especially from Bill Freeman who wanted to raise it substantially in Nashville (actually we don’t have a minimum wage here). I’d be curious why this has come up as an issue for Barry to spotlight against Fox now?
I have just seen the new Fox TV ad (his final?) on Thursday night. You can see it here.
In this ad the candidate is still behind the wheel of a dark SUV. I’m not sure it’s the same Lincoln SUV from his last spot but it might be. This time Fox is having a mind- to- mind dialogue with the Fox campaign mascot who has become something of cult hero in these commercials. The ad maintains that the Fox character (and by inference, Fox himself) are guarding Nashville and they are the only ones that can stop Megan Barry from tax increases or turning Nashville into another Atlanta.
I think this ad in its tone and format is a little weird for a closing campaign ad (if that’s what it is). But then the Fox campaign at times has been a little quirky in its on-the-air stuff and maybe the Fox Team thinks this t will work to cut through all the noise to connect with undecided voters. Or maybe they just really like Matthew McConaughey (the movie star who’s been making those Lincoln commercials).
Meanwhile the Fox brother funded Super PAC (George Fox) has seemed kind of quiet publicly besides the one TV ad it has been airing quite frequently the last couple of weeks. I hear there is now a second spot airing from the Super PAC but I haven’t seen it.
We have learned from the latest financial disclosures that the Citizens Super PAC activities have been so extensive George Fox has now doubled his total contributions to the group to a cool $1 million. That includes funds to conduct some phone banks which the Barry campaign claims started that false community “whisper” campaign against her that she is an atheist.
There was one other radio spot that created some fuss this week in the mayor’s race. It didn’t come from either candidate. Rather it is reportedly paid for and voiced by outgoing Metro Councilman Duane Dominy, who represents District 28 in Antioch.
The ad is reportedly airing on at least local one gospel station and allegedly says that during his eight years on the Council (which are concurrent with Megan Barry), he has personally observed her “not saying” under God during the Pledge of Allegiance which the body recites before every meeting.
I have two observations to offer. First, I stood right next to Megan Barry at the Downtown Rotary Club on Monday with David Fox on my other side. Since I’d heard these charges circulating on Facebook, I listened closely. Barry clearly said "under God" when the Pledge was recited by the Club and its guests (so did Fox).
Dominy represents District 28. Under the longtime seating arrangements at the Council, he sits and has his desk towards the back of the Council chambers. As an At-Large member Barry is in the front of the room in the first row. Not to question anyone's hearing or eye sight, but if Dominy is in or near his chair and desk when the Pledge is done (as council members usually are), they are facing the Flag (which is
also in the front of the room). Barry would have her back to him to also face the Flag. The Councilman’s hearing and vision (given his line of sight) must be truly extraordinary if he has personally observed this multiple times. Just saying.
There were a couple of other interesting polls released this week. NEWSCHANNEL5’s survey shows how a TV debate can swing support quite a bit with Barry going from a two-point deficit among poll respondents before the NEWSCHANNEL5 debate held on Monday, August 24, to a nine-point lead according to those who took the on-line survey after the live session. Normally I am not a fan of on-line polls. But the designers of this survey took considerable steps to protect it from being a “vote early and often” effort which would make the results meaningless. The pollster also took pains to coordinate the results to make it resemble demographically (except for race) the voter turnout on August 6. So arguably the numbers seemed plausible and interesting to peruse, along with a question ranking what are the top issues facing the next mayor. Its transportation says this survey.
The other new poll that came out this week was on Wednesday (September 2). It’s the final Power Poll from Bruce Dobie posted on his TheNashvilleBanner.com web site. I call it the Chatter Class poll because its respondents are from among several hundred Nashville opinion leaders and other powerful and influential folks in town. The results are not scientific. But a previous survey did correctly point out in the August election that David Fox might edge out Bill Freeman for the second runoff spot, although the group still thought Freeman would make it.
This Chatter Class survey has been increasingly positive about Megan Barry throughout the campaign and that continues big time in this final survey. It says Barry is going to win (i.e. is expected to win) with a certainty of that result being quite striking (above 70%)
You can see the final Power Poll and Bruce Dobie’s insightful and intriguing commentary here.
The Power Poll numbers probably looked better to the Barry Team when they first came out Wednesday afternoon. I suspect THE TENNESSEAN poll which came out a just a few hours later (Thursday AM) likely curbed any over- confidence by Barry supporters about September 10. A source in the Barry camp tells me they think she has a bit larger lead that THE TENNESSEAN survey, one outside the roughly 4% margin of error. But I sense maybe not that much larger a lead than just a few points. So I am sure both sides are renewing their efforts to go all out until the end. I am also sure the Fox Team has been reinvigorated by THE TENNESSEAN poll.
Early Voting ends Saturday (tomorrow) So far the numbers turning out have been above what they were in August in every Early Vote location (18.7% more through Thursday) . If the early turnout has the same “end of vote” final days increase we saw last month, we could easily vote more than the 54,000 we did back then. But remember Labor Day weekend is already starting, so will early voters still turn out? One Barry observer now thinks total turnout (including Election Day) could be close to 130,000, a huge spike from the total 104,000 who came out total in the August election. In fact from my memory (and I need to check the records) Metro runoff voter turnout is rarely larger than the August balloting and usually it lucky to be flat or at the same level as the first vote.
But the early vote increase has been declining in its percentage in recent days so maybe the increase won’t be that large.
Who would those extra voters be? I can’t say for sure. A larger turnout in Davidson County would usually favor a Democratic candidate. Some of them may be folks who didn’t folk at all in August. So what brings them out now?
Keep this in mind too. Green Hills and Howard School once again lead the way in Early Vote (which Megan Barry won overall in August). That’s based on an early vote by site breakout I got this week. But the next three sites in turnout this time (Belle Meade, Hermitage & Bellevue) were all won by Fox in August (he finished second in the early vote). Will they go his way again? I would guess yes.
The percentage of increased current early voter turnout at each precinct might also be disturbing for Barry. The perceived Fox-friendly areas like Hermitage (30%), Edmondson Pike (26%) and Belle Meade (21%) are up pretty big. For Barry Green Hills (25%) is up a lot too, but Howard School is up just 12.8% and Bordeaux the only early vote location in a minority community is up just 1.6%.
Based on Gentry's endorsement, Barry should win the Bordeaux early site handily (but again by what margin and size of vote?) The rest of the early vote sites in August, except for Casa Azafran (which Barry carried in August with very small vote numbers), all went for Freeman and so this time will they lean towards Fox or does have new strength there?
So far all the early vote sites show increase from August. Will this rising tide just lift all boats...or which candidate will get more?
Late this week (Thursday) the partisan nature of the mayoral campaign and the all-out battle to win the minority vote intersected with Tennessee State Democratic Party putting up a radio spot and sending out flyers going hard after Fox for being a “Republican” and evoking the return of segregation (the 1950s) if Fox becomes mayor. Both ads are based on Fox’s term on the Metro School Board. The Fox campaign says the State Democratic Party materials are “patently false and are the lowest form race baiting.” The Barry campaign says it welcomes any support but points out it did not request or coordinate this effort by the State Party which is highly unusual in what is normally considered a “non-partisan” race.
The controversy continues with Fox scheduling a news conference in Hadley Park today (Friday afternoon) to further push back on the Democrats’ ad materials. Meanwhile the Tennessee Young Democrats are conducting canvassing efforts for Barry here this weekend. Said the new President of the Young Democrats, London Lamar, who was quoted in a party news release: “we can’t afford to lose our capital city to Republicans.”
You can read more, hear the State Democrats’ radio ad and peruse the direct mail flyer at this link to a TENNESSEAN story.
One last note: raising the religion issue did not go well for David Fox at least with THE TENNESEAN. The paper featured an entire page of Letters to the Editor from readers blasting him. In the same edition,
columnist Frank Daniels said he would have preferred the paper endorse Fox back in the summer rather than Barry. Now he says he is disappointed with how Fox has been acting in this matter. Ouch!
By the way all that appeared in print the same day (Wednesday) that the paper’s independent poll showing the mayor’s race as a dead heat was the lead story on the front page.
INSIDE POLITICS
As we did before the August general election, this week on INSIDE POLITICS, we’re bringing back the folks who have covered this runoff campaign on a day by day, and at times, an almost hour by hour basis.
Nobody knows this race better than THE TENNESSEAN’s Joey Garrison or THE NASHVILLE SCENE/NASHVILLE POST’s Steven Hale. So join us for one last in-depth conversation on what’s happened these last four plus weeks since the August 6th vote and what lies ahead on Election Night (September 10).
INSIDE POLITICS can be seen several times each weekend on NEWSCHANNEL5 PLUS. Those times include 7:00 p.m. Friday; 5:00 a.m. & 5:30 p.m., Saturday; and 5:00 a.m. & 12:30 p.m. on Sunday. THE PLUS is on Comcast Cable channel 250, Charter Cable channel 182 and on NEWSCHANNEL5’s over-the-air digital channel 5.2. Again for those who can’t see the show locally or are from out of town, you can watch it live with streaming video on NEWSCHANNEL5.com.
Also don't forget to tune in our live coverage (Thursday) Election Night. Join NC5_RhoriJohnston , myself and the rest of the NEWSCHANNEL5 team from 7-8 pm (maybe longer) on the PLUS and on the main channel WTVF-TV from 7:30 until 8:00 pm CDT. It's going to be an historic night!
NOT NEUTRAL
To say the least, Tennessee lawmakers are not having a neutral reaction to efforts by the University of Tennessee’s Office of Diversity to push the use of gender neutral pronouns among students, faculty and others on campus. That would mean, for example, using the word “ze” instead of “he” or ‘she” in conversations.
State Representative Bill Dunn of Knoxville told Tom Humphrey (Humphrey on the Hill, August 29) that at first, he thought it was joke. “And then I found out it was true at which point I thought, ‘Are we paying someone to come up with this stuff? I just think that when people pay their taxes they would rather have it go to a university so that people can learn something, not be brainwashed into some gobbledygook.”
State Senator Frank Nicely was even more pointed in his criticism. “It seems to me the biggest lack of diversity we have at the University of Tennessee is people of common sense.“ Nicely’s Senate colleague Paul Bailey wrote on Facebook: “First it was eliminating the Lady Vols. Now this? I doubt if parents spending over $15,000 a year expect this kind of nonsense education.”
Some lawmakers are calling committee meetings to further investigate the matter. Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey (the real boss on Capitol Hill) warned UT officials to do something about this matter (he didn’t say what) or the General Assembly will act when it returns in January (again he didn’t say what
lawmakers would do). Cut the UT budget? Pass a law prohibiting the promotion of gender neutral pronouns?
Actually, Senator Nicely offered an alternative I found rather humorous. He suggests: “Maybe we ought to go back to “thee” and “thou” for everybody and that will take care of that.”
OK, but only if the General Assembly adopts that kind of “King James” or “Shakespeare” version of the English language in its committee hearings. Can you imagine debating “guns in parks” in the language of Romeo and Juliet or the 23rd Psalm
CONCERTS AND PRO SPORTS SHOULD MEAN NO GUNS
The battle over where Tennessee gun permit holders can take their weapons never seems to know a ceasefire.
In the wake of a recent State Attorney General’s ruling that indicates the newly revised “guns in parks” law might now allow fire arms to be brought to local festivals and concerts along with possibly athletic contests, a bill has been filed by legislative Democrats to allow local governments to continue to ban such weapons from ticketed events and concerts at municipally owned facilities or from professional sports venues used for games or training.
Senate Minority Leader Lee Harris of Memphis says since these events often offer alcohol for sale to large crowds that is “a recipe for disaster, and also “creates a grave danger for law enforcement officers who might not be able to distinguish friendlies with a gun from a criminal.”
But given the large Republican Super Majority in the Legislature that overwhelmingly passed the current “guns in parks” bill, will this change in the law even have a change to get more than a second in committee? Democrats seem to think so or at least they are willing to give their GOP colleagues all the ammunition they need to kill the measure which Democrats believe they can then turn into a successful re-election issue in 2016.
Good luck with that. Given past gun debates, the odds don’t look promising to me.
A FITTING HONOR FOR FYKE
Kudos to the Metro Board of Parks and Recreation for naming its headquarters building near Centennial Park in honor of its former longtime Director, Jim Fyke. I have had the chance to cover (and know) Jim ever since he took over at Parks from Charlie Spears back in the early 1980s. I worked closely with him while I was in Mayor Fulton’s office and I am proud to say he is my friend (and a reader of this column).
Jim Fyke is responsible for providing the leadership and overseeing much of the growth and the improvements our parks system has enjoyed over the past 30-plus years.
Parks is one of those city services that everyone (especially elected officials) want more and more of (so they can brag about it to constituents). But come budget time, they don’t want to fund it. One of Jim Fyke’s greatest accomplishments has just been doing more each year with often less money, all while
also adding new parks, additional acreage and new facilities. And his reward for doing that? Do it again the next budget year.
There is no finer public servant this city has ever had as a department head than Jim Fyke (and he has some competition for that honor in my mind although I won’t name them for fear of forgetting somebody and getting in trouble).
Since retiring from Parks (and after serving some years as Tennessee Commissioner of Environment & Conservation) Metro has been fortunate to have kept Fyke’s talents while he’s served as a special assistant with the Finance Department. The new wonderful Sounds baseball park at Sulphur Dell is one of the most recent examples of his excellent work.
Like many of us, Jim Fyke has faced his health challenges in recent months. But he’s handled them with the usual straight up, deal with it, and get it done attitude he’s shown throughout his public service career.
There is perhaps no greater tribute to who Jim Fyke is and what he’s done for Nashville than having four of the mayors he’s served under (Fulton, Bredesen, Purcell and Dean) all attend the dedication ceremonies when the parks headquarters was re-named this week. What an historic photo to see them all together with Jim Fyke (sorry Mayor Bill Boner apparently was not there to honor one of our city’s best public servants).
