CAPITOL VIEW
By Pat Nolan, NEWSCHANNEL5 Political Analyst
May 12, 2023
DEBT LIMIT IMPASSE CONTINUES IN WASHINGTON WITH DEFAULT DEADLINE AND POTENTIAL ECONOMIC DISASTER NOW POSSIBLY LESS THAN THREE WEEKS AWAY; FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP FOUND LIABLE FOR SEXUAL ASSAULT, DEFAMATION AND A $5 MILLION DOLLAR JUDGEMENT; THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT INDICTS EMBATTLED CONGRESSMAN GEORGE SANTOS; THE FIRST NASHVILLE MAYORAL POLL HAS SURFACED; NASHVILLE’S NEW YEAR’S EVE BASH IS ON THE MOVE AGAIN; GOVERNOR BILL LEE SETS SPECIAL SESSION ON GUNS FOR AUGUST 21; INSIDE POLITICS UPDATES THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE
DEBT LIMIT IMPASSE CONTINUES IN WASHINGTON WITH DEFAULT DEADLINE AND POTENTIAL ECONOMIC DISASTER NOW POSSIBLY LESS THAN THREE WEEKS AWAY
Much as “Nero fiddled while Rome burned,” our elected officials in Washington are continuing to court a national and worldwide economic disaster. There was no progress made this week (so far) on a solution to avoiding the country hitting its debt limit maximum in now perhaps less than three weeks.
President Joe Biden met with bi-partisan leaders of both Houses of Congress on Tuesday. The political game of chicken and gamesmanship continued as both sides believe the other will blink and cave in for a deal.
If there is no solution, for the first time in American history, the U.S. government will default on its debt and here is what may begin to happen.
Both the President and congressional leaders were set to meet again today (Friday) but that was postponed until next week so staff could work on possible compromise. Meanwhile, the newest wrinkle in the crisis is word from Mr. Biden that he is taking a serious look at invoking the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution as a way to bypass congressional action But he doesn’t think that will work given the time frame. After all, this is an untested constitutional thesis that could roil the markets and the economy while likely being quickly challenged in the courts.
In the midst of all this continued economic uncertainty over the debt crisis, recent bank failures and rising interest rates, there was some more news this week. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released Wednesday finds inflation dipped again (slightly) in April to 4.9%. This is the tenth consecutive month the CPI has declined and the April inflation number is the lowest since April 2021.
But it should be noted that the core inflation increase remains higher and is still much more than the 2% to 3% annual rate the Federal Reserve wants to achieve and why the Fed has raised interest rates ten times in the past year, including another quarter per cent last week. But the latest CPI report may increase the chances that another interest rate bump may be delayed for a while.
FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP FOUND LIABLE FOR SEXUAL ASSAULT, DEFAMATION AND A $5 MILLION DOLLAR JUDGEMENT
Once again, Donald Trump is making news headlines never associated with a former President of the United States, much less the leading candidate to be the Republican presidential nominee next year.
In a civil case, a New York jury found Mr. Trump liable of sexual assault and defamation. The jury also awarded the victim $5 million in compensation, all coming out an assault in the 1990s.
Donald Trump has already been indicted in New York in April on 34 felony counts of falsification of business records in the first degree. He pleaded not guilty to all the charges. He has denied these charges.
I would imagine the former President will appeal this sexual assault and defamation verdict along with its $5 million fine.
He is also bound to remain a candidate presidential candidate in a Republican field where he again is emerging as the front-runner. In fact, while the overall response from GOP leaders has been mixed, Tennessee U.S. Senator Bill Hagarty seems to be sticking him Mr. Trump.
The timing of this latest legal entanglement for candidate Trump is somewhat awkward. He was due to be the focus of a campaign town hall hosted by CNN Wednesday night. Frequently applauded by conservative New Hampshire voters, Trump played to his base of supporters, doubling down all his past political complaints and controversial stances.
Trump is the focus of several other criminal investigations. One is in Georgia over his role to change the presidential vote in that state to his favor. Meanwhile, the U.S. Justice Department has two probes, one concerns the former President’s use of classified documents, while the other involves his role in the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol where Trump supporters sought to stop the certification of the 2020 presidential election.
THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT INDICTS EMBATTLED CONGRESSMAN GEORGE SANTOS
Also re-emerging in the news this week is controversial New York congressman George Santos.
Santos is a Republican lawmaker whose astonishing pattern of lies and fabrications stunned even hardened politicos.
Now he has been indicted by the U.S. Justice Department which has been examining allegations of false statements in Santos’ campaign finance filings and other claims.
The exact charges remained under seal until he surrendered to authorities on Wednesday morning.
Santos is now facing 13 federal charges, including wire fraud and money laundering. Specifically, that includes seven counts of wire fraud, three counts of money laundering, one count of theft of public funds, and two counts of making materially false statements to the House of Representatives.
Congressman Santos has entered a plea of not guilty and is free on a half-million-dollar bond.
The indictment is bound to renew and increase calls for Santos to resign his seat in Congress. But not surprisingly, with a razor thin Republican majority, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is not asking Santos to go. According to CBS News, McCarthy did add he will not support Santos in his bid to seek re-election next year. Santos says he is running again in 2024.
THE FIRST NASHVILLE MAYORAL POLL HAS SURFACED
The deadline for candidates to qualify to run for Nashville mayor in the August 3 election is not until next Thursday (May 18).
But the field is already large, and the first public poll has emerged to show a trio of early front runners, along with others, who seem to have the financial resources to become contenders.
I had heard this poll was coming and saw some of its numbers. But I was told it would not be released until qualifying day May 18. I guess it leaked or the sponsoring group changed its mind about releasing it.
In terms of who has raised the most money (either from others or loans to themselves) you might think Jim Gingrich (over $2 million) and Matt Wiltshire ($1.8 million) would be the top two rather than 6th and 5th.
Instead, all those in the lead in this poll are all public officials who likely have better name recognition than Gingrich (4%) and Wiltshire (7%). Both State Senators Heidi Campbell (22%) and Jeff Yarbro (17%) were on the ballot last November. Yarbro won easily against light opposition, while Campbell was beaten for Congress by Republican Andy Ogles. Campbell did very well, however, in the Davidson County portions of the 5th Congressional District which may explain her first place showing in this poll.
Both of the State Senators entered the mayoral race after incumbent John Cooper announced he was not seeking re-election. Neither Campbell or Yarbro have disclosed their fund raising numbers thus far, numbers that will be critical for them to compete going forward. Of course, their showing in this poll is likely to help them raise funds.
Metro Councilmembers Freddie O’Connell (16%) and Sharon Hurt (7%) are both in their second terms. Hurt is a council member at large so she has twice run and won countywide. But running for mayor is a different kind of race than at large, where you can vote for up to 5 people.
O’Connell is a district council representative. Therefore, his third place showing would seem somewhat surprising if name recognition alone is a factor. Both O’Connell and Hurt will need to step up their fund raising to stay in the hunt to reach the inevitable runoff election in September between the top two vote getters in August, as no one seems likely to garner a 50% plus one vote majority the first time around.
Both Wiltshire and Gingrich will need to remember voter name recognition and support does not come overnight. In addition to their seeming advantage in money (for now), the many community candidate forums being held, will give all the candidates, including those whose numbers are low in this poll, the chance to emerge on the issues and show they stand out as candidates who are qualified to be mayor.
Meanwhile, AXIOS Nashville has an interesting look at the outsized impact older, long-term voters seem poised to play again in the August election.
A couple of other notes to relate.
Since we don’t have ranked voting in Tennessee, I am not sure what a ranking of second choices means in this poll. I guess it could be an indication of where support might go depending on who gets in the runoff. But there are still over two and a half months of campaigning to go, so voters will likely have plenty of chances to change their minds about who they plan to vote for along with whoever is their second choice.
Finally, I noted the poll did not allow those surveyed to choose undecided only “other.” There could yet be another mayoral candidate or candidates to emerge by next week, but it doesn’t feel that way.
I do wonder that if an undecided choice was allowed in this survey, how much larger it might have been. As it was, if “other” was a real candidate, he or she would have finished second (or in the runoff) at 19%. That seems to me to be a real indication of how fragile and undecided vote are in this race is as the field is close to be finalized.
NASHVILLE’S NEW YEAR’S EVE BASH IS ON THE MOVE AGAIN
When Nashville’s began its annual New Eve’s Bash it was at a time when city officials were still trying to get Nashvillians comfortable with coming downtown after dark.
That quickly was not an issue as the event soon became one of the largest New Year’s Eve gatherings in the nation. But to accommodate ever-growing crowds, the New Year’s Eve event was moved to the Bicentennial Mall where has even garnered live national TV coverage.
But once again, officials of the Nashville Convention & Visitors Corporation which puts on the show, have find a new venue for it…….not because the event has outgrown its space on the Mall but because the state is jacking up the rent from over $100,000 to over $4000,000!
It’s unclear if the state’s new rental rates apply to all state parks or just the Bicentennial Mall.
Now city parks officials are being asked to host the New Eve event in Centennial Park. Not surprisingly there are concerns being raised from surrounding neighbors and park supporters.
Could this become an issue in the mayoral and Metro Council races this summer? Is this set to become the next bone of contention in the ongoing feud between Nashville and the state.
Meanwhile, a new analysis by the TENNESSEE LOOKOUT confirms that Davidson County, more than any of the other 95 counties in the state, is subsidizing many of the others in terms of taxes generated and state funds coming back to local communities. And Nashville is getting a lot less back ($1.5 billion) than what we send to the state.
GOVERNOR BILL LEE SETS SPECIAL SESSION ON GUNS FOR AUGUST 21
It took a few weeks longer than expected to get a date on the books.
But this week Governor Bill Lee announced he wants the 113th Tennessee General assembly to return to Nashville for a special session on August 21.
The order to return is to force lawmakers to deal with an issue, guns, which they fled town from even considering it last month.
Perhaps strangely, the Governor didn’t even mention the word gun in his news release announcing the special session.
“I am calling for a special session on August 21 to continue our important discussion about solutions to keep Tennessee communities safe and preserve the constitutional rights of law-abiding citizens,” said Gov. Lee. “There is broad agreement that action is needed, and in the weeks ahead, we’ll continue to listen to Tennesseans and pursue thoughtful, practical measures that strengthen the safety of Tennesseans, preserve Second Amendment rights, prioritize due process protections, support law enforcement and address mental health.”
The governor is inviting Tennesseans to engage in the conversation by sharing feedback here. He will meet with legislators, stakeholders and Tennesseans throughout the summer to discuss practical solutions ahead of the special session.
The Governor’s office will also issue a formal call ahead of the special session. That call may well be critical as to what issues, regarding guns and public safety, the Legislature can, and can’t consider during the special session.
As for how Tennessee is already doing in keeping guns out of the hands of folks already potentially facing charges, the news is not good. The Tennessee Bureau of Investigation (TBI) already has a backlog of 230,000 cases that could impact those who might be seeking background checks to buy weapons.
In the related issue of school safety, in the wake of the deadly mass shooting at Covenant School in late Governor Bill Lee this week did sign a bill this week allocating over $200 million in state monies to offer new safety resources to both public and private schools. The bill does not address access to firearms.
But many of those hundreds of protestors who came to the Capitol demanding action on gun reform during the waning days of this year’s regular legislative session, returned to the Capitol this week. They wish the special session was being held earlier than late August. But their ongoing presence means whenever lawmakers convene, those protestors will continue demand their representatives be accountable on this need for change.
INSIDE POLITICS UPDATES THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is now approaching 450 days of conflict, with no end in sight.
But might the next few weeks see a possible breakthrough with warmer weather giving both sides the opportunity to launch major offensives? And might that lead to negotiations to settle the war?
Vanderbilt History and Political Science professor Dr. Thomas Schwartz has several times joined us on INSIDE POLITICS to share his insights on this largest land war in Europe in over 70 years.
Dr. Schwartz joins us again this week.
As always, we thank him for joining us!
INSIDE POLITICS can be seen on its regular weekly schedule on NEWSCHANNEL5 PLUS.
Those times include:
7:00 p.m. Friday.
5:00 a.m., 3:00 p.m. and 5:30 p.m. on Saturday.
1:30 a.m. & 5:00 a.m. on Sunday.
THE PLUS is on Comcast Cable channel 250, Charter Cable channel 182 and on NEWSCHANNEL5’s over-the-air digital channel 5.2. We are also on DISH TV with the rest of the NEWSCHANNEL5 NETWORK.
One option for those who cannot see the show locally, or who are out of town, you can watch it live with streaming video on NEWSCHANNEL5.com. Just use your TiVo or DVR, if those live times don't work for you.
This week’s show and previous INSIDE POLITICS interviews are also posted on the NEWSCHANNEL5 website for your viewing under the NEWSCHANNEL5 PLUS section. A link to the show is posted as well on the Facebook page of NEWSCHANNEL5 PLUS. Each new show and link are posted early in the week after the program airs.
