CAPITOL VIEW
By Pat Nolan NEWSCHANNEL5 Political Analyst
June 16, 2023
ON INSIDE POLITICS TWO OF NASHVILLE BEST POLITICAL REPORTERS ANALYZE OUR WIDE- OPEN MAYOR’S RACE; THE TRUMP INDICTMENT ONE WEEK LATER; MEANWHILE BACK IN THE HOUSE; INFLATION SEES A MAJOR DECLINE WHILE THE FED PUTS INTEREST RATE HIKES ON PAUSE BUT NOT OFF THE TABLE; METRO COUNCIL PLACES NASHVILLE SPEEDWAY RENOVATIONS UNDER A CAUTION FLAG; ANOTHER WEEK AND STILL MORE LAWSUITS ARE BEING FILED OVER CONTROVERSIAL LEGISLATION PASSED BY TENNESSEE REPUBLICAN SUPER MAJORITY; A CELEBATORY SUMMER FOR TENNESSEE
ON INSIDE POLITICS TWO OF NASHVILLE BEST POLITICAL REPORTERS ANALYZE OUR WIDE- OPEN MAYOR’S RACE
In less than a month on July 14, Early Voting starts and Nashvillians will begin to decide who will be our next mayor.
With polls showing up to 40% or more of respondents say they are “undecided” or support “none” of the 12 candidates on the ballot, this appears to be the most wide-open mayor’s race in Metro’s 60- year history.
Why is that? And what needs, or has to happen, to bring more clarity for voters for the August 3rd election, and for the likely runoff race between the top two candidates in September?
Our INSIDE POLITICS guests this week to discuss these and other related topics are Steve Cavendish, editor of the NASHVILLE BANNER online news service and Cassandra Stephenson, the Metro government reporter for THE TENNESSSEAN.
We thank both of guests for joining us.
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THE TRUMP INDICTMENT ONE WEEK LATER
While no one would be pleased facing 37 felony counts handed down by a federal grand jury, Donald Trump, in some ways, is exactly where he wants to be.
One week after the indictment came down, Mr. Trump, the first former president or current president to face federal charges, is still at the top of every news cycle (where he always wants to be). And the first public polls show him again pulling further away from his rivals to be the 2024 Republican nominee for president, while many in the GOP are rallying behind him. Mr. Trump has also reportedly raised over $6 million on- line during this first week after being indicted.
As for the former president’s 2024 GOP opponents, several of them felt at first forced to defend Trump or downplay and criticize the investigation process of the Department of Justice. But that has changed a bit with some Republican candidates ,once the full details of the 37 count felony indictment, has been released to the public.
The legal situation may be the toughest Donald Trump has ever faced. And there are potentially still more charges looming from the investigations of the January 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, and his involvement in seeking to overturn the 2020 presidential election in Georgia.
For now, Trump’s major defense in the misuse of classified documents case against him is one of selective enforcement, even though the cases he cites are quite different from his own say legal experts.
What if he is convicted and goes to jail, can Donald Trump still run for President? It appears he can as two previous presidential candidates have done just that.
In the meantime, there are some former allies and supporters of the former President, such as Attorney General Bill Barr and National Security Advisor John Bolton, who are not rallying to Mr. Trump’s side, while Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell and some other GOP senators are saying very little.
Of course, Republicans in the House, perhaps fearful former President Trump might attack them and find primary candidates to oppose them, have been quick and loud to support Mr. Trump and attack the federal agencies and officials involved in his prosecution.
One of Nashville’s new Republican congressmen, Andy Ogles is going even further in his attacks. It seems to stand no chance of passing the House, but Ogles has filed articles of impeachment against President Joe Biden and Vice President Karmala Harris. And under the Constitution, if both the President and Vice President are impeached by the House and convicted and removed from office, GOP Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy would become the nation’s Chief Executive.
MEANWHILE BACK IN THE HOUSE
The recent shutdown of the U.S. House of Representatives by conservative members, angry that the new law extending the nation’s debt ceiling because it did not include more and deeper budget cuts, has ended for now.
But the matter is not over. Now that Freedom Caucus conservatives know can stop the show without trying to directly oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy, you can be sure they will try such a shutdown again if they want to do so.
Meanwhile more moderate GOP conservatives in the House Republican Caucus had some harsh words for their arch conservative colleagues this week.
And there is a new fight with Democrats brewing that could see Congress again facing a government shutdown by the end of year holidays. The new bone of contention is that Republicans in committees are drafting appropriation bills with spending levels well below the limits agreed to in the bi-partisan debt ceiling law. The additional difficulty is these new appropriations bills involve cuts in all areas of government spending including defense, which could further divisions in both parties.
INFLATION SEES A MAJOR DECLINE WHILE THE FED PUTS INTEREST RATE HIKES ON PAUSE BUT NOT OFF THE TABLE
The latest consumer price index report shows inflation in the U.S. is now rising at its slowest pace in over two years (March 2021). Prices rose just 1% from April to May and the annual rate is down now to 4% after being as high as 9% last summer.
In the wake of those numbers, the Federal Reserve Board decided to place on pause any further interest rate hikes this month. This is the first time the Fed has held off an increase in its last eleven meetings over more than the past year.
But don’t start anticipating a decline in the cost of borrowing money. In fact, because some elements of what is known as inflation on ‘core items” (food costs) are still rising at closer to 5% and the ultimate goal is to hold rising prices to 2% annually, Fed officials say we can still anticipate two more interest rate increases between now and the end of the end of 2023.
METRO COUNCIL PLACES NASHVILLE SPEEDWAY RENOVATIONS UNDER A CAUTION FLAG
Beginning next month, the Metro Council is set to consider a bill to renovate and expand the city’s historic Fairgrounds Speedway. It would occur under a 30-year lease with officials of the Bristol Motor Speedway to bring NASCAR events back to Nashville. The plan would increase the facility’s grandstand capacity to 30,000 and would build a sound wall around the track to protect the surrounding community.
But before that legislation even came up, the size and source of the city’s funding for the project was almost derailed at the Council meeting Tuesday night. It happened during the body’s consideration of Metro’s 5-year Capitol Improvement Budget.
The CIB is a planning document. The city can’t move ahead with a capital effort unless the project is included in the Capitol Improvement Budget. But approval of the budget doesn’t spend a dime. That would take future Council action.
There has long been strong neighborhood opposition to the Speedway plan due to noise, parking and other concerns. Seeing the CIB as a way to slow, or even stop the proposal, an amendment was submitted to cut and change the type of funding from 100 million in revenue bonds (preferred by Mayor John Cooper) to 10 million in general obligation bonds.
The rest of the funding will come from State and the Nashville Visitors and Convention Corporation.
But for a while on Tuesday, the Council couldn’t decide what to do. Four times the body could not muster yes votes from two-thirds of those voting to cut off debate and then vote on the amendment. Finally, when the impasse was broken and the vote was finally taken, the amendment was narrowly defeated 13-15.
So where does the Speedway project stand? It is at best under a strong caution flag that may soon change to red. With only 4 meetings of this Council left in July and August, there was already little room for delays or deferrals. With a third of the body now seemingly already opposed to the project under it’s current funding based on Tuesday’s vote, approval looks even more iffy.
There is also a major legal question now in the courts about how many votes it will take to approve the Speedway plan. Several years ago, the Metro Charter was amended with strong community support to require 27 votes for this kind of renovation. But the plot thickened in the strangest way in recent weeks, when the Bristol Motor Speedway people went to the Republican Super Majority and got the Legislature to pass, and Governor Bill to sign a new law that lowers the votes needed for the Nashville Speedway plan to 21.
To further turn things on their heads, both Mayor Cooper, the Metro Legal Department and some councilmembers have filed separate lawsuits seeking to uphold the 27 vote Metro Charter provision. I know the courts can sometime act quickly, but will this Metro Council know by its final meeting on August 15, just how many votes will be needed to past this Speedway legislation?
What if the legislation fails in the Council? Well, it is back to the drawing board with a new Mayor and Council in charge. This Axios article doesn’t portend a clear track ahead.
ANOTHER WEEK AND STILL MORE LAWSUITS ARE BEING FILED OVER CONTROVERSIAL LEGISLATION PASSED BY TENNESSEE REPUBLICAN SUPER MAJORITY
Even though the Tennessee General Assembly adjourned its regular session weeks ago, I am still writing stories about new lawsuits being filed to stop controversial legislation that lawmakers passed. This week there are two new suits to report. One suit is part of several actions where Metro Nashville government officials are seeking to push back on what they say is the state overreaching its authority (such as in the Fairgrounds renovation effort we discussed earlier). This latest suit about what the city sees as the “hostile takeover” of the Metro Airport Authority, an agency which is a driving force in Nashville’s economy and its growth.
The second new lawsuit this week actually comes from the same law that grants state teachers substantial pay raises. But the legislation also strips teachers, that belong to a union, from having their dues automatically deducted from their pay. The teacher’s union, the Tennessee Education Association, says that is unfair and has gone to court.
Looking to the future in the next few weeks and months, the state is auditing the eligibility for Tenn Care patients. It is the first time this has been done since the pandemic began. Other states such as Arkansas are further along in their review process of what is known as Medicaid in those states. And it appears to what is happening in Arkansas is already raising concerns from federal officials, and it should provide a cautionary tale for Tennessee if it wants to avoid still more lawsuits.
One other Capitol Hill related development this week, the two members of the Tennessee Trio, kicked out of the General Assembly for protesting for gun reform legislation on the House floor, both won their primary elections Thursday to get their seats back. Both Justin Jones of Nashville and Justin Pierson of Memphis have been back serving in the Legislature ever since their home town legislative bodies restored them to their posts on an interim basis this spring. Now only an August 3rd general election vote, which they are prohibitive favorites to win, stand the way to of the two lawmakers being back in the State House through the end of this Legislature in 2024.
A CELEBRATORY SUMMER FOR TENNESSEE
The 50th Country Music Festival last week was the most successful one yet, as the weather was perhaps the best ever too.
This week’s Bonnaroo Music Festival near Manchester is also seeing record attendance, with officials anticipating the increase, and opening the gates early for those camping out. The attendance may be double from last year despite some strong storms coming through the area briefly Thursday afternoon.
Meanwhile, with this being the first year the state of Tennessee is officially celebrating Juneteenth the number of events locally continues to grow .
A national Juneteenth celebration has already been held at the White House in Washington, with Tennessee being well represented by the Tennessee State University Marching Band and the Fisk Jubilee Singers!
