CAPITOL VIEW
By Pat Nolan, NEWSCHANNEL5 Political Analyst
July 28, 2023
LESS THAN A WEEK FROM THE VOTE, THE MAYOR’S RACE REMAINS UNDECIDED; THE HISTORY OF MAYORAL RUNOFFS IN NASHVILLE; ALL OVER THE STATE, ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AROUND THE WORLD AND EVEN INTO OUTER SPACE; WELCOME TO CAPITOL HILL ON INSIDE POLITICS
LESS THAN A WEEK FROM THE VOTE, THE MAYOR’S RACE REMAINS UNDECIDED
The latest voter survey conducted by a pollster (Washington D.C.-based political strategy firm GBAO for the progressive, union-backed Tennessee Laborers' Political Action Committee) finds the 2023 Nashville mayor’s race still up in the air among several candidates.
No candidate is even remotely close to the 50-percent plus one vote needed to win the mayor’s seat outright. Therefore, the one thing that is clear is that there will be a runoff election on September 14 between the top two vote getters in the August 3rd balloting.
While undecided still gets the largest amount of support in the new poll with 23%, there is a new, and in this poll, clear leader in the overall now 11-candidate mayoral field. It is Metro District Councilman Freddie O’Connell with 21%. Self-described Republican candidate Alice Rolli, a former aide to Senator Lamar Alexander and Governor Bill Haslam, is battling it out with State Senator Jeff Yarbro for the second runoff spot. Rolli has 13% in the new poll, with 12% for Yarbro.
If the poll is accurate, the biggest loser in the results is Matt Wiltshire, a former top aide to two mayors and the Metropolitan Development& Housing Agency on affordable housing and economic development issues. After being in or near the lead in most early polls, Wiltshire garners just 10% in this survey, the only other candidate in double digits in the survey.
I am aware of at least one other private poll, commissioned by a business industry group, that also shows a large, remaining undecided vote. That very high number might also explain the puny early voting numbers with an average of only around 3,000 votes being cast per day so far. Early voting ends Saturday.
Are voters undecided because they want to wait to see who makes the runoff field? Or are they just not into these candidates enough to pick anyone? Do they feel their vote won’t mean anything? The answer to that could be very important to Rolli. How close is she to maxing out the Republican voter base in overwhelmingly blue Davidson County/ Nashville? How can she attract disaffected Democrats and Independents to support her if she makes the runoff? If she can’t and county Democrats unite behind whichever progressive candidate is in the runoff, the outcome may not be very close.
As for Senator Yarbro, he seems to be coming on strong after a late start entering the field. According to his campaign finance report filed a couple of weeks ago, he goes into the final days with just over a half million remaining in his coffers. That will allow him to run more frequently his ad that pledges he will work hard to end gun violence. I suspect all the candidates are for that. But Yarbro is the only candidate devoting an entire TV campaign spot to the topic. I also understand he is focusing on the topic during campaign meet-and-greet events hosted in the homes of his supporters.
Is this new poll wrong? Can Matt Wiltshire still turn his early advantages in fundraising and spending into a spot in the runoff? I understand some early polling showed Wiltshire in the mid-20s for support. But as the field of mayoral candidates has widened, it appears Wiltshire’s support has shrunk? To boost his supporters and try to reach the undecided, Wiltshire went on s 24 hour campaign marathon across Davidson County.
Even now, Wiltshire is only 3 points out of second place and a runoff spot. Remember the poll’s margin of error is just over 4%. It still appears therefore, it is anybody’s race for the runoff contest, at least among these three candidates.
Yarbro, Wiltshire and O’Connell all received significant endorsements on Wednesday. While personal endorsements don’t seem to carry the weight they did in years pass, the ones for Jeff Yarbro from former Congressman Jim Cooper and Wiltshire from Sheriff Daron Hall would seem to be the most impactful.
Jim Cooper likely remains the most popular political figure in Nashville and Daron Hall would rank high on that same list.
As for O’Connell, his unexpected dark horse rise as a candidate continues. Will the withdrawal of businessman Jim Gingrich from the field, followed by the endorsement of O’Connell by Gingrich’s campaign staff, give the Germantown council member the extra voter support he needs to move and stay in the front of the mayoral field?
If elected mayor, O’Connell would be the fourth consecutive member of the Metro Council to become our city’s chief executive. But the others were all at-large members elected countywide. O’Connell would become the first mayor ever to be elected by someone holding one of the Council 35 district seats.
THE HISTORY OF MAYORAL RUNOFFS IN NASHVILLE
Since we will be spending a lot of election night August 3 talking about the upcoming runoff for mayor on Thursday, September 14, I researched the almost 61- year history of Metro Nashville mayoral runoffs.
There have been 7 such contests while 9 Mayoral contests did not require a runoff.
SPOILER ALERT: No one who finished second to make the runoff has ever finished first (or won the second election).
In other words, the candidate who finished first in the first August election has found a way to extend his or her vote total to over 50% plus one vote in the second vote.
1966
Incumbent Mayor Beverly Briley is re-elected, defeating Ben West, the last mayor of the old city of Nashville. The first August vote found a close three- way race with Briley at 36,146 votes, West at 35,825 and Vice Mayor George Cate with 30,312. Cate endorsed Briley and he won the runoff handily.
1971
Beverly Briley wins his third and final term as mayor, defeating Metro Councilman Casey Jenkins. In the first August vote, Briley received 24% of the vote to Jenkins’ 21%. Jenkins’ strong showing was a surprise and appeared to come from strong community opposition to a federal court desegregation ruling mandating the use of the busing of students. During the runoff election, discrepancies emerged in Jenkins’ resume and voters chose to re-elect Mayor Briley again.
1987
Congressman Bill Boner defeats Nashville businessman and political newcomer Phil Bredesen. Boner received 46% of the first August vote. Bredesen got 23%. Bredesen helped defeat a horse referendum also on the August ballot. The runoff race polarized the community with Boner carrying every voting precinct north and east of the Cumberland River while Bredesen showed increasing strength as the vote was counted south and west of the river. The vote total of 144,000 in the runoff remains, 35 years later, the largest voter turnout in Nashville mayoral history.
1999
Nashville State Representative and House Majority Leader Bill Purcell defeats former three-term mayor and congressman Richard Fulton. Purell came within just a percentage point or two of winning the mayoral contest in the August vote. Fulton did not contest the runoff election.
2007
Metro Legal Director Karl Dean defeats former Congressman Bob Clement. In the August vote Dean garnered 24% of the ballots to Clement’s 23.6%. Former Vice Mayor Howard Gentry barely missed the runoff with 23.1% of the vote.
2015
Metro Councilmember At Large Megan Barry defeats former Metro School Board Chairman David Fox. Again, the August vote was very close with Barry getting 23.5% of the vote to Fox’s 22.8%. Barry was Nashville’s first female mayor and the first member of the Council elected mayor. Fox is now Alice Rolli’s treasurer in this year’s mayoral race.
2019
Current and outgoing Mayor John Cooper soundly defeated then incumbent Mayor David Briley. It was the first time a Metro Mayor had been defeated for re-election. Briley had been Vice Mayor and became mayor when Megan Barry resigned. Briley then won a special election to serve out Barry’s term. While below 50%, Cooper finished well ahead of Briley in the August election, winning the runoff contest with 70% of the vote.
ALL OVER THE STATE, ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AROUND THE WORLD AND EVEN INTO OUTER SPACE
When the month of July ends on Tuesday, it will likely mark the hottest month ever recorded on Planet Earth.
Even halfway through 2023, it appears that in Tennessee, across the county and around the world, there is more at work than another year of El Nino in the continued extreme weather being experienced almost everywhere.
Back in Tennessee, there is yet another trend that continues. It is yet another lawsuit filed against the state. It is being filed because the Republican Super Majority passed still one more law that plays to their political base on a hot button issue.
In this case, it is over what can and can’t be taught in school, more specifically a law that tries to make sure Tennessee is anti-woke. Such laws are being passed in a number of Republican-dominated states. In Tennessee, the statewide teachers ‘union has filed suit in federal court arguing the law is vague and unconstitutional.
The latest suit joins a long list of legal filings to oppose actions taken in recent sessions of the General Assembly. Now, in a somewhat strange twist inthe area of restricting trans medical care, there is even another lawsuit being filed between groups that used to be allies but are now in court in a suit against each other.
In other legal developments, six months after Memphis police savagely bear Tyree Nichols to death the U.S. Justice Department is launching an investigation into both the department and the city itself.
In Metro, an ethics complaint has been filed over a city board’s refusal to approve gender affirming care for city workers.
And then there is the summer-long controversy because a large number of Tennessee third graders didn’t pass the language arts (reading) exam given to students every year. A law passed by the Republican Super Majority acting again as a statewide school board mandated those who flunked would be retained in third grade.
But at least in Nashville/ Davidson County, after many impacted students appealed their scores, retook the test or went to summer school and took tutoring, the numbers of those being retained is down to just 1.4%.
Everyone agrees it is vitally important that students know how to read by third grade. But does this test really do that job? Or is there some better way to do that than all the chaos and confusion we’ve seen the past few months.
In Washington, House Republicans started their Summer/ Labor Day recess a day early because they are struggling to muster enough support within their caucus to pass appropriation bills that must be approved by the end of September, or the nation faces yet another government shutdown.
By the way, in contrast to the House, on a bi-partisan basis, the Senate has moved all 12 of the appropriation measures out of committee.
But there are growing concerns about the Republican leader in the U.S. Senate after Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky suffered some kind of medical episode during his weekly news conference with the Capitol Hill media.
For President Joe Biden, the ongoing legal problems of his son Hunter exploded back to the top of the news headlines this week. It came after a plea deal agreement with the Department of Justice for the younger Biden seemed to fell apart in court, leading him to plead not guilty to the tax and other charges he faces. Prosecutors have disclosed there are still more potential charges they are investigating about Biden.
All these developments have pumped new life into Republicans efforts to ramp up their oversight investigations and hearings into the President’s son and the Mr. Biden himself. The word of impeachment is being mentioned although there are those in the GOP not yet on board about that.
As for former President Donald Trump a federal indictment against him regarding his role to unlawfully overturn the 2020 presidential election was not forthcoming on Thursday when the grand jury considering the case adjourned with no announcement. However, Trump, the leading Republican candidate for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination got still more bad legal news late Thursday when the Justice Department issued a new indictment, with additional charges, in the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case set to go to trial next spring.
The news went to outer space on Capitol Hill this week, or more specifically, unidentified anomalous phenomena, known as UAPs or UFOs.
Finally on the economic front, after a month off, the Federal Reserve again raised interest rates another quarter of a percentage point. They are now at their highest level in 22 years, and Fed indicates it may raise rates one more time, even as rampant inflation has declined significantly in recent months.
WELCOME TO CAPITOL HILL ON INSIDE POLITICS
“Welcome to Capitol Hill!”
That’s the title of a new book on Tennessee politics that will be released next month on August 17.
It outlines the worst scandals in state government over the past 50 years and why it is important to voters and the media to remember what has happened in the past and be prepared in the years to come.
Two veteran reporters of Tennessee government and politics, Joel Ebert and Erik Schelzig, are the authors of the book.
They join us on INSIDE POLITICS this week.
We welcome them to the program.
Joel has been a guest several times over the years while you worked for THE TENNESSEAN.
Eric, I have been trying for years to get him on the program. But his duties and deadlines with the Associated Press and now THE TENNESSEE JOURNAL, have kept that from occurring!
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