CAPITOL VIEW
By Pat Nolan, Senior Vice-President, DVL Seigenthaler Public Relations, a Finn Partners Company
December 1, 2017
A TAXING TIME FOR CONGRESS; BRUCE OPPENHEIMER ON INSIDE POLITICS; A MAJOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE RUSSIA INVESTIGATION; FULL DISCLOSURE; TAX DISCLOSURES IN THE GOVERNOR’S RACE; GETTING BACK ON TRACK
A TAXING TIME FOR CONGRESS
Congressional Republicans and President Donald Trump appear to be closer than ever to passing their first major piece of legislation for 2017. It’s the tax overhaul bill.
While, at this writing Friday afternoon, the debate continues in the Senate, it appears opposition within the narrow GOP majority is perhaps coming together behind the legislation this time, unlike what occurred during the numerous unsuccessful “repeal and replace Obamacare” debates earlier in the year. Or maybe not.
If the tax bill is approved in the Senate, it will still need to be reconciled with the bill the House has approved. But that process may not be as complex compared to all the negotiations and political horse trading that has been going all week to get the 50 votes needed to pass the bill in the Senate.
During the week both Tennessee Senators played interesting if unsuccessful roles, directly and indirectly, in the process of crafting the final key legislative compromises that seemed posed to ensure final (i.e. GOP majority) approval of the tax bill.
For Senator Bob Corker, he has been reluctant to support the tax legislation because it would add to the deficit. But, for a while this week he likely thought he had found a way around his concerns. He negotiated with both Senate leaders and President Trump to add triggers to the bill that would automatically raise tax rates again if the deficit balloons beyond a certain amount. The latest bi-partisan projections show the Senate bill could boost the national red ink by more than $1 trillion over the next decade!
Still both Senator Corker and Senator Jeff Flake (another lawmaker with deficit concerns) felt confident enough about the possibility of adding their triggers to the legislation, they both voted the tax bill out of committee this week and to begin debate on the Senate floor.
But then it was learned that the trigger concept is not allowed under Senate rules. Now why nobody thought to ask the Senate Parliamentarian about this matter before things got this far down the road, nobody has explained. At first in the wake of the rejection of his proposal, Senator Corker led a move Thursday night to send the bill from the Senate floor back to committee. That might well have killed the whole tax bill effort.
Senate leaders managed to convince Corker and other Senate deficit hawks to reconsider while they worked on an alternative. But after cutting a deal with two other GOP Senators to sweeten the tax rates for some small business organized under the passthrough provisions, Senate leaders decided they couldn’t find a way to make a compromise work with Senator Corker (it was much more expensive and controversial than the small business concessions they made).
As this is written, it is not known how Senator Corker will vote on the tax bill, but Senator Flake announced at mid-day today (Friday) he is a yes vote. That made it clear the tax bill had at least 50 votes meaning it would pass even if it needs Vice President Mike Pence casting the tie—breaking, decisive 51st yes vote.
Maine Senator Susan Collins has also been undecided. She proposed her own plan to make the tax bill something she could support. That’s where Senator Lamar Alexander came in.
Senator Collins is opposed to repealing the Obamacare “individual mandate” to buy insurance as a part of the tax bill. She wanted, GOP leaders to pass legislation negotiated by Senate Health Committee Chairman Alexander (R-Tenn.) and Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.) that would reinstate cost-sharing reduction payments to insurance companies.
It would be paired with legislation sponsored by Collins and Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) that would set up health reinsurance programs for older and sicker individuals.
Again, it appeared Senate GOP leaders and perhaps President Trump were ready to support the Collins proposal even though the President had publicly spoken out against the Alexander bill. It all became mute when House conservatives said they and the full House could not support what Collins wanted, so her plan died. Media reports (CNN) indicate Senator Collins is still leaning towards voting for the tax bill.
All of this maneuvering has been like constructing a finely tuned watch. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell compared it to successfully working a Rubik cube. There are so many pieces and parts involved to make things come together, there remained multiple ways things could go awry…and if they did, even final passage of the tax bill might still be in doubt.
But it looks like it’s all coming together to give the GOP Congress and President Trump their long awaited first major legislative victory, the upcoming House-Senate conference committee, not with standing.
BRUCE OPPENHEIMER ON INSIDE POLITICS
Vanderbilt political science professor and congressional expert, Dr. Bruce Oppenheimer is my guest on INSIDE POLITICS this week.
We’ll analyze the debate and the politics of the tax bill as well as the other major issues facing Congress this month, such as another government shutdown looming next week.
President Don Trump said this week he doesn’t believe a spending/ debt ceiling deal can be made with the Democrats to avoid a shutdown. So Merry Christmas to all and to all, an uncertain New Year!
We will also discuss with Dr. Oppenheimer 2018 politics with the congressional mid term elections coming up. That includes an open Senate seat in Tennessee as well as a governor’s race with no incumbent.
News of the Flynn plea deal in the Russia investigation (more on that later in the column) also broke during our conversation, so we talk about the implications of that. The Senate was still debating taxes when we talked, so you may know than we did then on that issue by the time the shows airs.
It all makes for an interesting discussion for sure, so tune in.
INSIDE POLITICS airs several times each weekend on NEWSCHANNEL5 PLUS. Those times include 7:00 p.m. Friday; 5:00 a.m., 3:00 p.m. and 5:30 p.m. Saturday; along with 1:30 a.m. & 5:00 a.m. on Sunday.
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This week’s show and previous INSIDE POLITICS interviews are also posted on the NEWSCHANNEL5 website for your viewing under the NEWSCHANNEL5 PLUS section. Each new show is posted the week after it airs.
A MAJOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE RUSSIA INVESTIGATION
The Special Counsel investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 election, and if the Trump campaign played a role, is an ongoing shadow looming in the background over everything happening in Washington these days.
Friday, the second plea bargain in the investigation was revealed. Ousted former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn is pleading guilty to felony charges that lied to the FBI about his involvement and conversations with Russian officials, including a former Russian ambassador to U.S.
It was over this matter, and lying about it to Vice President Pence, that led to Flynn being fired by the White House. That might indicate that the Flynn plea deal did not directly involve the President. But Flynn has been under investigation about a number of issues and it appears his plea deal came with a commitment he will fully cooperate with the Special Counsel on anything else he knows relate to the investigation.
This development marks the highest level person who has worked in the Trump White House pleading guilty, and with Flynn’s agreement to cooperate you can be sure what that will be the number one subject of conjecture in the Washington rumor mill and it is bound to raise concerns within the halls of the White House about what happens now/ next in the probe.
FULL DISCLOSURE
As the sexual harassment scandal continues to unfold in Washington (and indeed across the nation) Nashville Congressman Jim Cooper wants to change things on Capitol Hill.
Besides just adding annual mandatory sexual harassment training for all House members and their staff (which Cooper already requires), the Nashville Democrat is one of four main sponsors of legislation that would, according to a news release from his office, “empower victims of sexual harassment and eliminate the confidential “hush fund” currently used to settle sexual harassment claims in Congress.
“No more cover-ups,” Rep. Cooper said. “We need transparency, safety and appropriate behavior. Sexual misconduct has no place here, or anywhere.”
The Congressional Accountability and Hush Fund Elimination Act would overhaul the secret taxpayer-funded system that is currently used to settle harassment claims.
The bill would:
• Prohibit the use of public funds to pay settlements or awards for sexual harassment or assault claims;
• Require the Office of Compliance to disclose all previously made payments on its website; (the name of the victim is expressly prohibited from being disclosed);
• Require perpetrators to reimburse the taxpayers with interest;
• Prohibit nondisclosure agreements as a precondition to initiate procedures to address sexual harassment or assault claims; and
• Permit victims of sexual harassment or assault to make public statements about their claim, regardless of any previously signed nondisclosure agreement
One last interesting note about the Cooper bill. One of the other major co-sponsors is Tennessee Republican Congressman Marsha Blackburn.
Does that raise your eyebrows?
Blackburn is also the leading contender to become the Republican nominee to be the next U.S. Senator from Tennessee (replacing the retiring Bob Corker).
I am sure they will be some Democrats who wish Cooper wouldn’t co-sponsors bills with such a prominent Tennessee Republican. But others may look at the move correctly as a sign of how important this legislation is because of the extreme seriousness of this problem and the need to address it quickly, comprehensively (within what legislation can do) and, most importantly, do it without partisanship.
But, not surprisingly, the issue already seems to be on the way to perhaps becoming a matter of interest in the Tennessee Republican gubernatorial primary.
GOP candidate and congressman Diane Black says she plans to support the Cooper/ Blackburn bill in Congress. But she wants to broaden the discussion by asking state legislative leaders, including her opponent House Speaker Beth Harwell to release all details of any sexual harassment claims or settlements involving state lawmakers or staff.
She told THE TENNESSEAN:
"Victims should be released from their Non-Disclosure Agreements and Congress and the state legislature should identify perpetrators and produce redacted information that shields the identity and circumstance of the victim," Black said in the emailed statement.
"Veils of secrecy only serve to protect the perpetrators. Full transparency and accountability is the only way to allow victims to heal and to bring perpetrators to justice."
The paper added that so far Speaker Harwell along with Lt. Governor Randy McNally and Governor Haslam have not responded to requests for comment.
TAX DISCLOSURES IN THE GOVERNOR’S RACE
With the Senate debating taxes in Washington, it made for an interesting time for THE USA TODAY Network—TENNESSEE to publish a story about what the seven major Tennessee gubernatorial candidates are willing to do in terms of disclosing their tax returns for the past several years.
The request was made in October but so far only one candidate, Democrat Craig Fitzhugh, the current State House Majority Leader has released his actual returns. Two Republicans, Congressman Diane Black and Tennessee House Speaker Beth Harwell have released financial tax summaries. The other four have either refused to release their returns, including Democrat Karl Dean, although Dean and some of the others have left the door to release tax or financial information later.
Here’s what the campaigns have told THE TENNESSEAN:
Republican businessman Bill Lee:
“In a statement, Lee said, “As chairman of Lee Company, a privately held company, in the interest of protecting my business and the over 1,200 employees there, I will not be releasing my tax returns in this campaign.”
When he announced his run for governor in April, Lee said his company generates about $225 million in annual revenue.”
Republican businessman and former state ECD commissioner Randy Boyd:
“Boyd spokeswoman Laine Arnold said the request is “something we will certainly consider in due time once the final field of candidates is set and as we see what the other candidates intend to do.”
When pressed further, Arnold said the issue is something that will be looked at after the first of the year.”
Former Republican State Senator Mae Beavers responded this way says the paper:
“A spokesman for Beavers refused to respond to multiple requests for tax returns, at one point instead suggesting a story about Haslam’s decision to not release his own tax returns during his run for governor.” (More on Governor Haslam later)
Perhaps the most surprising response came from the campaign of former Nashville Mayor Democrat Karl Dean:
“A spokeswoman for Dean said while they would not be able to provide documents within one month of the initial request, the campaign would consider providing such (financial) information in time.
“We will let you know when we’re finished compiling and prepared to release Mayor Dean’s personal finance information,” said Sophie Friedman.”
I say the Dean response is surprising because his lone Democratic primary opponent, Craig Fitzhugh has provided his tax returns and it should not be a surprise such a request would be coming to the Dean Team.
Besides it was Democrats across Tennessee and the nation who roundly criticized now President Donald Trump for not releasing any tax information.
Prior to Trump, Presidents and presidential candidates almost routinely released their returns. The same was true for previous Tennessee governors and candidates. But in 2010, Governor Bill Haslam did not do so although he did release a summary of income and taxes.
Frankly, it does not seem to be that big a deal to the public as it was back in the days following Watergate when disclosure and transparency were at the top of the list to voters.
GETTING BACK ON TRACK
Faced with perhaps stronger than expected pushback regarding several of her major policy efforts, Mayor Megan Barry has been trying to get things back on track.
First, as we discussed when she was my guest on INSIDE POLITICS a few weeks back, unhappiness has been building about her light rail plan. In particular, there’s concern that the line only went out Charlotte Avenue to I-440. That’s not very far at all into West Nashville. That led area councilmembers and state representatives to seek an extension.
And while Thanksgiving is not known for its gift-giving, Mayor Barry announced on Thanksgiving Eve (Wednesday, November 22) that Metro had found additional sales tax funds to extend the Charlotte Avenue project another two miles out to White Bridge Road. That’s about an extra $250 million to be added to the total city-wide light rail cost. I am sure it delighted the West Nashville area. But what does the Mayor say to folks in other parts of town who’d like to see their light rail service extended further?
Maybe it’s already starting? See this NASHVILLE BUSINESS JOURNAL article about Madison: https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/11/28/councilwoman-to-madison-learn-from-charlotte-aveto.html?ana=e_du_prem&s=article_du&ed=2017-11-28&u=sVGy2clkwFHPfrZgYgIW%2FA0d4c69e1&t=1511905504&j=79251041
By the way, all these financial projections to build out the light rail system and other parts of the Mayor’s transit plan will be audited and certified as legitimate by the State Comptroller before the Metro Council votes to put the proposal and the needed tax increases on the ballot next May 1st for voters to decide.
Elected officials have long used the excuse to say they “found” unexpected funds to pay for projects or to avoid planned (but unpopular) cuts. It would appear in this case the Comptroller review and certification will hold down any funny business about that although how many more parts of town will get extended light rail service will be up to Mayor Barry to figure out dollar-wise and/or explain it to other neighborhoods why they won’t get any more light rail right now.
Another transit issue the Mayor must continue to deal with is the decline for the second year in a row of bus ridership in the city. THE TENNESSEAN reports MTA ridership has gone down over 5% since 2015.Opponents of Mayor Barry’s transit proposal say this is a sign that in an age of ride sharing and other options large transit options such as buses and especially light rail aren’t the answer. These opponents also say crime committed on local transit also is hurting ridership. The4 allegation comes during a week when a shooting left a man dead on a MTA bus in Madison.
Transit advocates say nationally transit ridership is rising including on many light rail systems. They claim the MTA decline is likely temporary. Mayor Barry says a decline is ridership is a “myth” about mass transit. She adds this to THE TENESSEAN:
““People take transit when it's fast, affordable and convenient,” she said. “Those options don’t exist in Nashville today as buses are stuck in the same traffic as everyone else. Getting past cyclical numbers starts with investing in rapid bus and rail service and making sure that our transportation network keeps pace with our population — by expanding and connecting more neighborhoods with each other and with more job centers. We need to build that network.”
A second major issue the Mayor is trying to get back on top of is her abrupt announcement a couple of weeks ago that her administration plans to end in-patient service at the city’s General Hospital. It’s not that many folks didn’t know something like this was coming someday (General’s daily bed count can not keep the doors open) and 90% of the hospital’s current work load is already outpatient services which the Mayor wants to continue.
But the Mayor did not publicly signal or warn Metro Council members, hospital employees or the Hospital Authority this move was coming, and that brought about some emotional public meetings and comments that were quite negative about the Mayor and her proposed change. Some felt blindsided and said they’ve lost some trust in the Mayor. THE TENNESSEAN reported she set a letter to the Hospital Board Chairman with an apology about the timing and notice of her hospital change announcement.
But the numbers don’t lie. General Hospital is bleeding more and more red ink. The city is now subsidizing the facility up to $35-$45 million a year. Something about the Hospital’s operating model has to change, while at the same time dealing fairly with employees and providing indigent care, including for local jail inmates who use General for their health services while behind bars.
And so this week, the Mayor accepted an offer from Meharry Medical college for the institution to appoint an 11-member blue ribbon panel to study the matter and recommend a plan of action back to her and the Metro Council about what to do. Led by the top official at Meharry Medical College, President James E.K. Hildreth, a review of the makeup of the study group seems to bring all the stakeholders to the table to figure this out. The tentative makeup of the group as reported by THE TENNESSEAN is:
Dawn L. Alexander, RN, MHA, MBA, Chief Nursing Officer, Nashville General Hospital, awaiting confirmation
Judy Cummings, DMin, Registered Nurse; Senior Pastor at New Covenant Christian Church
Lemuel L. Dent, MD, Chief Medical Officer, Nashville General Hospital; Faculty Member, Meharry Medical College
Sara Finley, JD, Metro Hospital Authority; Threshold Corporate Consulting, LLC, Principal
Alternate Metro Hospital Authority Representative: Richard Manson, JD, SourceMark LLC, CEO
Talia Lomax-O’dneal, Metro Government, Director of Finance
Harold Love, Jr., PhD, Tennessee House of Representatives, District 58
William S. Paul, MD, MPH, Director of Health, Metro Public Health Department
Jonathan B. Perlin, MD, PhD, MSHA, MACP, FACMI, Meharry Medical College Trustee; Chief Medical Office, HCA Healthcare
Freda Player, Political Director, SEIU Local 205
A. Dexter Samuels, PhD, Executive Director, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Center for Health Policy at Meharry; Senior Vice President for Student Affairs at Meharry Medical College
Tanaka Vercher, Metro Council, District 28; Budget and Finance Committee, Chair
Alternate Metro Council Representative: awaiting confirmation
It is estimated the panel will need at least 6 months to finish its work. That would be just in time (but barely) for consideration by the Mayor and Council during Metro’s budget making process. But the state might need to be involved financially too through Tenncare. Federal involvement and monies could well be critical as well even though the status of national healthcare (Obamacare or no Obamacare) remains quite murky for sure.
As for the Mayor, if the blue-ribbon panel comes up with a plan she can embrace, then it’s their plan together about what to do about General Hospital, not just her proposal alone. Politically that would could make a big difference.
But already the fight about more money for General is heating up. Hospital officials say they need another $20 million to keep the hospital’s doors open through the rest of this fiscal year (June 30). These are funds the health officials say they requested during the last budget process, but both the Mayor and Council said no.
Mayor Barry says extra funds will be allocated to keep General afloat, but her Finance Department is asking lots of questions to find justification for why another $20 million is needed right away.
One last issue that is bubbling up on Mayor Barry’s to- handle list is the proposed Fairgrounds MLS pro soccer stadium. The good news this week: Nashville is officially one of four finalists (along with Sacramento, Detroit and Cincinnati), to receive expansion MLS franchises. Two will be awarded later this month (December 14) and Nashville is now considered by many MLS observers a very strong candidate to win a team.
The bad news this week is a lawsuit filled by advocates of the Fairgrounds claiming the soccer stadium deal violates the law and the Metro Charter by damaging existing Fairgrounds buildings and operations. The Fairgrounds operates a monthly flea market, a speedway and the annual State Fair which, with the help of state of Tennessee officials, has been looking to move that event outside Nashville.
Fairgrounds officials dispute that the soccer stadium will in any way hurt their South Nashville property, their current operations or needed buildings. The Mayor’s office says the stadium approval process has followed the law in every way. But some building demolition (of what the administration says are outdated, unneeded Fairground structures) will be required and that takes a two-thirds or 27 vote Council majority to do so.
That’s when a cross-pollination of issues might occur. Some in the Council’s Black Caucus have been so ticked off about how the Mayor has handled the General Hospital issue, they have publicly threatened to vote against or abstain on the Fairgrounds demolition. Of course, we won’t know if any of this
matters until the pro soccer franchise decision is made the middle of this month by the MLS. The stadium won’t be built unless Nashville wins its bid.
