CAPITOL VIEW
By Pat Nolan, NEWSCHANNEL5 Political Analyst
August 4, 2023
THE VOTERS HAVE SPOKEN AND INSIDE POLITICS ANALYZES WHAT THEY SAID WITH VANDERBILT’S JOHN GEER; MY FIRST TAKEAWAYS ON AUGUST 3; THE REST OF THE NEWS…TRUMP INDICTED AGAIN; A CREDIT RATING REDUCTION; BACK IN TENNESSEE
THE VOTERS HAVE SPOKEN AND INSIDE POLITICS ANALYZES WHAT THEY SAID WITH VANDERBILT’S JOHN GEER
The voters of Nashville have rendered their choices in the August 3rd Metro Elections.
They didn’t elect a new mayor, but they did narrow down a field of 11 down to just two candidates (Freddie O’Connell and Allice Rolli ) who will face off in a runoff election September 14.
The voters did elect a new vice mayor and filled 33 seats of a new 40- member Council.
To help us analyze the returns, talk about where we are as a city, and where we go from here, is Vanderbilt political science professor Dr. John Geer.
We welcome John back to the program.
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MY FIRST TAKEAWAYS ON AUGUST 3
Here are just a few brief comments, with more to come next week, after further time to reflect and study the returns.
Alice Rolli being in the mayoral runoff marks the third time in the last eight years that a conservative Republican-leaning candidate has been a major factor in a Nashville mayoral election. Rolli’s 20% of the vote is in the same range of support that David Fox received in the August 2015 mayor’s race, and what Carole Swain garnered in 2018 in the special mayoral election.
Can she find a way in the September runoff to build her vote up to a 50% plus one majority in a deep blue county? Or will Freddie O’Connell be able to unite the other candidates in the mayor’s race, who are largely progressives behind him, and likely win the runoff handily.
Since Nashville has elected its last three mayors out of the Metro Council, Rolli indicated her line of attack against McConnell is that the Council is not a good place to look for a mayor. Will that sell to voters?
Frankly, incumbents seeking re-election in the Council did very well Thursday night, winning 19 out of 20 races. And no incumbents are in runoffs. Both those figures could be records.
Even those seeking to leave their Council seats for other posts did well or stayed alive. Along with O’Connell in the mayoral runoff, 3 councilmembers are in the runoff for the four remaining At-Large council seats. And while current At-Large member Sharon Hurt lost her mayoral bid, 34th District council member Angie Henderson upset incumbent vice mayor Jim Shulman to be the new presiding officer of the Council. She will be only the second women (Diane Neighbors) to hold the post.
Women candidates overall did well. My count shows they will hold at least 18 seats in the new Council, just two below the record 20-20 gender split in the current Council. And with 4 women in the At-Large runoff, and female candidates in two of the three district runoffs, there is a good possibility the new Council will be a female majority body, and with a woman presiding officer as Vice Mayor.
More next week.
THE REST OF THE NEWS…TRUMP INDICTED AGAIN
Some may be surprised that my lead article in CAPITOL VIEW this week is not the federal indictment of President Donald Trump surrounding his role in falsely trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election including inciting the January 6 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.
If my column didn’t focus on Nashville and state politics, the story probably would have topped this week’s epistle But this is the third time in the last fourth months that the former President has been indicted by federal authorities, making it perhaps a bit less unprecedented, if not for the chilling fact that he remains the only American Chief Executive so charged.
But both legal experts and historians say this latest indictment is the most serious one yet, compared to being accused of paying hush money to a porn star to cover up an affair and the misuse of classified or top secret government documents. Mr. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges including the four felony counts in this week’s indictment.
Once again, it is expected the reaction of Trump supporters and Republicans in general, will be to rally behind their likely 2024 Presidential nominee. In fact, even before the latest indictment came down on Tuesday, at least one poll is showing the former President lapping the entire field of his would-be GOP competitors. That’s right. Mr. Trump has more support in this poll than all the other candidates COMBINED.
The same NYT poll shows Trump tied in a 2024 rematch with President Joe Biden.
The long, extended time frame of indictments leading to trials, much less convictions, also cloud the impact of Trump’s growing legal woes. But there is some polling evidence there is an erosion in public support for Donald Trump as the indictments mount.
The latest indictment shows some unindicted (for now?) co-conspirators coming to the forefront, people who former Vice President Mike Pence, once an unapologetic defender of the President, calls “crackpot lawyers.” From reading the indictment, you might wonder what role Pence, now a Trump rival for the 2024 GOP nomination, will play in the Trump trial when the charges come to court.
A CREDIT RATING REDUCTION
The other big story out of Washington this week is the somewhat unexpected credit downgrade (in its timing) that the Firth rating service gave the U.S. government. The move comes as Fitch sees “a steady deterioration in standards of governance.” That includes the latest financial melodrama in the Republican House of Representatives in extending the nation’s borrowing limit. Interestingly the January 6 insurrection seems to have also influenced the rating agency’s decision.
Congress is on its August recess and won’t be back in Washington until after Labor Day. Then lawmakers will face a mad dash to come to an agreement on a number of appropriations bill or face another partial government shutdown. Can you see coming yet another example of “ a steady deterioration of standards of government?”
BACK IN TENNESSEE
Here is the now weekly report on the raft of lawsuits pending in court because of bills passed by the Republican Super Majority in the General Assembly.
The state won a couple of rounds, with judges ruling in the state’s favor in extending restraining orders concerning the squabble over what board runs Nashville’s Airport.
The other decision allows the state to end, for now, deducting association dues from teacher’s paychecks.
In both cases, the merits of the lawsuits involved are still to be heard and decided in the court,
The biggest uncertainty on Capitol Hill in Nashville remains just what state lawmakers will debate when they return to Nashville in the next few weeks for a special session on gun reform.
The Governor’s office has been meeting behind closed doors with a few lawmakers to see if common ground can be reached on what bills can be passed. According to a survey of lawmakers, it doesn’t look promising at all for the Governor’s bill to keep guns out of the hands of those who might be dangerous. In fact many don’t seem to be willing publicly to say what they would vote for the issue.
Despite ongoing opposition, Governor Lee remains convinced the special session will pass substantial legislation in the area of public safety.
