THOMPSON'S STATION, Tenn. (WTVF) — LeeAnn Cherry wasn't surprised when she saw the numbers.
It's a reality she looks in the eye daily as "for sale" signs go up around her Thompson's Station farm in Williamson County. Her hundreds of acres are no longer surrounded by green pastures full of tiny purple weeds sprouting from the March rainfall. Just across the road, two new houses have already risen.
"You wake up, and there could be something new," she said, leaning against a fence post outside her house. Her entire front yard is full of beef cattle roaming across, sometimes even standing in the path of her driveway. "We are in for the long haul. We have every intention of continuing our farm. We have the generation behind us. We have grandchildren that for now express an interest in farming."
But holding on to farms across the state has grown complicated between selling opportunities and the population surging.
Tennessee has lost 1.5 million acres of farmland to development, according to new data from the University of Tennessee. That figure equates to the loss of six counties' worth of pasture and forest land completely gone.
But the Cherrys won't give up the land they have. Together, the family raises grass-fed beef cattle and pork and sells the meat to local farmer's markets, Nashville restaurants and their local farm store. The family has more than 100 head of cattle at their Thompson's Station farm. They also own land in Maury County. All told, they farm 2,000 acres in Middle Tennessee.
By 2027, the amount of land loss is expected to rise to 2 million acres.
"We need to talk about this," Cherry said. "What is this going to look like? What is the future going to look like? How are we going to eat? A million acres is a lot in Tennessee. It's a lot to lose. People need a place to live, and this is a great county to live in. But where are we going to get our food?
What are we losing?
Economist Charley Martinez didn't quite know the rabbit hole he would trail down when he started to compile data.
He had one central question: How much land has Tennessee lost to development?
The quest wasn't simple for him or others at the University of Tennessee. The state doesn't track the data and most county assessors don't keep up with it either. It took 18 months to put it all together.
"Data is like that," he joked.
But what he found, he considered serious.
"Land is a limited resource," Martinez said. "Understanding farmland conservation is complex because it impacts all of us, whether you're talking about food security or where people are going to live."
During the last five years, Williamson County has lost the most farmland to development. Martinez said that tracks as the population has risen significantly in Williamson. The U.S. Census has a quarter of a million people now living there.
Top counties ranked by highest change in developed land:
- Sevier
- Williamson
- Rutherford
- Montgomery
- Davidson
- Greene
- Hamilton
- Blount
- Sumner
- Hickman
Is it easy to buy farmland to save it?
The Cherrys aren't leaving Williamson County, and they wish they could expand their farming operations there.
But LeeAnn said the effort is becoming impossible. The average sale price of a house in Thompson's Station is just under $1 million in February, according to the Williamson County Association of Realtors. The average price of a house countywide is $1.1 million.
The land where a house sits is more valuable than ever, meaning the return on investment for a head of cattle to graze versus selling land for a house is a stark chasm.
"This is what we do, and we love what we do," Cherry said. "In this county, it's priced out of our reach. Can we continue to (buy land) in this county? No. There's no farmland available, and if there is, it's not affordable for farming. You play the hand you've been dealt."
The Cherrys are broadening the horizon of where they want to look to expand their operations. At the beginning of March, the Cherrys looked as far as Kentucky for other acreage opportunities.
"You can't fault the former who has worked his or her whole life and has the opportunity to cash out," she said. "It's a difficult dilemma that we are in."
In Williamson County, available land for just 12 acres of property ranges from $800,000 to $1.2 million, according to real estate listings posted in March. The listings aren't advertising for further farm usage. The listings feature how many homes could sit there.
"We are Tennessee farm. Our roots are here. We want to stay here," Cherry said. "We also want to be a sustainable farm. We want to continue farming, so what does that look like in the next decade? It's a conversation we are having with our family and other farmers."
