NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WTVF) — Maybe it's what's on the ballot. Maybe it's the heat.
"It’s as hot in terms of air temperature and in terms of heat index, that I can ever remember, even in an August Election," said Pat Nolan, NewsChannel 5's Political Analyst.
Whatever the reason, turnout for the August 2024 state and local primaries is expected to be incredibly low.
"Very light" is how Davidson County Elections Administrator Jeff Roberts described it, via text message Thursday afternoon. "Tennessee has the worst primary turnout in the country," said Nolan, citing a 2022 study that ranked Tennessee 51st, which included 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Nolan thinks low primary turnout could make some of the competitive races incredibly close.
Fifth Congressional District Race
The Tennessee Fifth Congressional Republican primary may be the race to watch Thursday night. Conservative Metro Council Member Courtney Johnston is hoping to unseat incumbent Andy Ogles.
"Johnston has outraised Ogles and has outspent him I suspect," said Nolan. "For her to have a chance, she’s going to have to get crossover votes tonight."
Ogles has been controversial at times, but is proudly touting his endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
"He endorsed Andy Ogles two years ago when he won the seat, and he’s recycled the same ad to run it again this time. He’s run it quite a bit here lately," said Nolan.
Voucher candidates
Perhaps the biggest storyline features an issue, technically not on the ballot — school choice.
"The governor hopes to get enough extra people, particularly electing people to open seats, to be able to get his voucher plan passed in the next session," said Nolan.
Gov. Bill Lee has endorsed a slew of candidates running for open seats in the legislature that back his vision for taking public tax dollars and let them follow students to transfer to private schools. It could make this primary make or break for the initiative.
"If he doesn’t pick up very many, or none at all, then chances are, whatever he wants to do in 2025, he may have to rethink that," said Nolan.
Do you have more information about this story? You can email me at Chris.Davis@NewsChannel5.com.
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