NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WTVF) — Recent polls have pointed to front-runners in Nashville’s mayoral election, but experts tell us they believe pre-election polls are problematic.
It’s not clear where some of the polls come from or how they were created, but Josh Clinton of Vanderbilt University says pre-election polls have the power to sway voters.
“As a pollster, pre-election polls make me a little queasy,” Clinton said.
Clinton is a professor of political science and in 2020, served as chair of a national organization that checked the accuracy of pre-election polls. Not surprisingly, proper polling is hard work.
“Well, the first thing whenever you look at a poll, you want to try and figure out what they’re doing. Who are they talking to? What’s the methodology? How are they adjusting their data,” Clinton said.
All great questions, but the trouble is finding this information.
One of the first polls to name Metro Councilman Freddie O'Connell as a front-runner in the mayoral race was done by Music City Research back in July. NewsChannel 5 Investigates has learned that Music City Research was created by another Metro council member Dave Rosenberg. Rosenburg has publicly endorsed his colleague O'Connell for mayor.
Rosenberg won’t say who paid his company Harpeth Strategies to create this poll, but Rosenberg did say he used a text messaging service to survey likely voters in Metro Nashville.
News outlets, including our own, shared these results, even though Rosenberg said the poll was never meant for the public. Rosenberg said he's not sure how the poll was circulated to the media, but it wasn't his doing.
“We have no idea the assumptions they’re making about who the electorate is and turns out there are some omissions here that make this look a little bit wonky,” Clinton said.
We asked Rosenberg why he didn’t attach his name to the Music City Research poll, and he said it’s simply not his policy. He then said, since the poll was never meant for the public, he didn’t think it was a problem to leave his name off the poll.
By comparison, the Tennessee Laborers PAC poll — which was published not long after — included a phone number, website, and some explanation for their data.
There were similarities however in the number of respondents, but also who these polls heard from.
Each poll had a sample size of 500 likely voters, which Clinton said was too small for a city like Nashville.
“When you only have 500 people, and you have it being weighted in an unclear way, you’re basically elevating some voices above other voices,” Clinton said.
Music City Research claims to have heard from people living in 13 zip codes out of roughly 38 zip codes in Metro Nashville, but Rosenberg later said he only listed the top 13 in his report.
According to the Music City Research poll, 73% of people who took part were white and 70% had at least a bachelor’s degree or higher.
Now compare that with Census data, which shows 60% of the city is made up of white people and only 43% of the city has a bachelor’s degree or higher. Clinton says it’s hard to ignore the discrepancy.
The Music City Research poll also noted 0 percent responses from Hispanic or Latino, Asian and American Indians in Nashville.
Black Nashvillians accounted for 22 percent of those participating in the poll.
Rosenberg says his data is supposed to reflect the electorate and not the overall population. He says he’s not concerned about the accuracy of his poll because it mirrors many others that came to similar conclusions.
“There’s a bias in terms of the people who actually answer polls, and I think you can see that reflecting in those numbers,” Clinton said.
Clinton says pre-election poll data historically have greater participation from white, educated, older people.
“Most polls for example are English language only. That can be super consequential if we’re talking about an election with small differences there,” Clinton said.
Which begged the question: Why do we do this in the first place?
Clinton says the short answer is there’s a market for it.
“I mean why do we love polls? I think it’s because we love scores, right? We love sports. We love scoreboards. Polls for better or for worse, we think it gives the appearance of who’s up and who’s down,” Clinton said.
Clinton calls it the Super Bowl of polling when fields are crowded and everyone is searching for who scored the highest. The question of course is who’s keeping score?
“That’s a real concern you have when you see these numbers and you’re hoping that when someone sees the poll numbers, that it’s not affecting their decision whether to vote or not. So, basically, I look at the poll and say I wouldn’t let it influence my vote because we really have no idea who’s coming in first or second,” Clinton said.
Clinton says there’s no group where they can hold pollsters accountable for how they collect their data. The organizations that do exist can only verify the work without any consequences if the data turns out to be wrong. It’s also not mandatory for any groups to submit their findings.
