CAPITOL VIEW
By Pat Nolan, Senior Vice-President, DVL Seigenthaler, a Finn Partners Company
June 19, 2015
THE MAYOR’S RACE AND ALICE IN WONDERLAND; TV ADS GO AT LARGE; DAVID FOX ON INSIDE POLITICS; SUMMER TOURS; NO NASHVILLE ON THE PANEL; THE CLOUD RETURNS; THE LOGO CONTROVERSY CONTINUES; THE ADULTS FINALLY SHOWED UP; ONE THING I FORGOT
THE MAYOR’S RACE AND ALICE IN WONDERLAND
Is Lewis Carroll a consultant to somebody in our ever-changing seven-way mayoral race?
Well, he’s been dead for 117 years so probably not.
But like Carroll’s most famous work, ALICE IN WONDERLAND, our mayor’s race keeps getting more and more curious with each passing week. And you don’t have a follow a white rabbit or fall down a hole to know that.
Much like Alice, these latest “curiouser and curiouser” mayoral experiences may also make us feel, as she did, that we are “much surprised that, for the moment, she (we) had forgotten how to use good English.”
So trying to employ my best grammar and writing skills (such as they are), here are the latest developments in this ever evolving contest.
It seems the only way we get polling data on the mayoral race this cycle is from internal polls from a campaign or from THE NASHVILLE BANNER’s Bruce Dobie POWER POLL (or what I call the “Chatter Class”)survey). One of those (an internal poll) is always suspect on its face due to it source. The other (the Banner Poll) is admittedly unscientific in terms of measuring the overall Nashville electorate although it may accurately reflect what Nashville’s “movers and shakers” believe will happen when the vote is counted in August.
So for what it’s worth in terms of water cooler conversation and for insights into the political strategy and positioning that seems to be going on among the candidates, here’s a quick summary.
The internal poll comes from Linda Eskind Rebrovick. Unlike two earlier surveys released a few weeks ago by Bill Freeman and Howard Gentry, this one does not show the disclosing campaign’s candidate (Rebrovick) leading the contest. But it does show her (surprisingly) in a tight three way race with Howard Gentry and Megan Barry for the critical second place spot to make the September runoff against the now acknowledged front runner Bill Freeman.
No previous survey from any source has shown Rebrovick that close to the top of the race. The sources I spoke with say they think her current location is likely closer to leading the lower pack of group of candidates which include David Fox, Charles Robert Bone and Jeremy Kane. The poll is plus or minus 5%.
Besides showing its candidate surging in the polls, why else would the Rebrovick campaign release its internal information? Well it may have to do with the continuing effort by some in the community to
identify and build support behind a single “anybody but Freeman” candidate. That effort gained further visibility when THE TENNESSEAN‘s Keel Hunt used his Sunday METROPOLITAN column (June 14) to urge one or more candidates (no suggestions were made about who that should be) to drop out of the race in order for the “anybody but Freeman” effort to have a chance to succeed.
I highly doubt any of the candidates plan to withdraw at this late date, especially since my sources also confirm the undecided voter number in the polls is still riding quite high (32% was the undecided number reported in the Rebrovick survey).
At the same time, I understand the call by Hunt in THE TENNESSEAN for candidates to quit the race has sent a tizzy of concern through donors especially in the lower tier candidates. They want some proof their candidate still has a chance to win or they may start looking around for someone else to get behind.
So perhaps the Rebrovick poll disclosure speaks to those donor concerns and also says to those looking for an “anybody but Freeman” candidate: “How about me?”
The “anybody but” effort is a theme also coming out of THE BANNER poll. It shows respondents believe it will be Freeman versus Barry in the runoff. But it also still shows the “chatter class” thinks Gentry, Bone, and maybe Kane, have a shot to make the top two.
You can see the full BANNER poll and Bruce Dobie’s analysis here: http://www.thenashvillebanner.com/politics/2015/06/17/freeman-vs-barry-in-runoff-if-election-held-today.1606250
One other poll-related rumbling I hear. The Freeman campaign reportedly has a poll taken in the last couple of weeks that shows the ranking order (not the poll numbers) of the mayoral candidates to be similar to the Rebrovick survey. What is hear that is concerning the Freeman camp is that despite all the money he’s spent especially on TV, he does not seem to pulling away or opening up much of a lead.
Indeed the BANNER poll indicates while almost 46% of those surveyed think he will finish first or second, only a little over 7% plan to vote for Freeman themselves.
Of course the Barry campaign is touting her strong showing, especially in the BANNER poll (again). Her campaign had a blast fund raising e-mail out within an hour of the survey’s release. Don’t forget the next financial disclosure deadline is the end of June with reports due by July 10. Those numbers (and who is giving money to what candidates) will be watched more closely than ever.
In that regard, the Host Committee list released late last week for the Bone campaign’s major Jimmy Kelly’s fundraiser on June 25 continues to get ink in the media. In addition to the major Phil Bredesen supporters who are now on Bone’s team (Dave Cooley and Byron Trauger), THE TENNESSEAN (June 15) reported other heavy hitter names on the Bone list now include (among others) Gina & Dick Lodge, Anna Windrow, Kitty Moon Emery, Butch Eley, Jimmy Grandbery and the Haynes Clan (Barbara & Joe plus their politically active grown offspring).
This is clearly Bone’s calling card to show he finally has some momentum from all his fund raising and his TV ads. It is also likely part of this pitch to be in the “anybody but Freeman” sweepstakes and unite the business community behind him.
THE TENNESSEAN also found the endorsement of Bone by controversial sports talk show host Clay Travis to be significant enough it was the lead item in its story on the matter. Gee, maybe I ought to ask my friends Hope Hines or Mark Howard who they are supporting for mayor?
The Bone Team is likely pleased as well with the results coming from a poll taken Monday night after a mayoral forum at the Mt. Zion Baptist Church, one of the city’s largest African American congregations. Those responding (670 surveys submitted) were asked to pick their top two after seeing the candidates. It was nearly a three-way tie at the top between Barry (179 votes), Gentry(177) and Bone (173). That’s a stronger showing for Barry than some would suspect. But the shocker was Freeman who garnered just 28 votes or 4.1%. That’s also behind Jeremy Kane as well who got 78 votes or 11.6%. I heard Freeman had a problem at the very beginning of the forum and was off his game for the all evening.
Kane is also continuing his outreach with the release at a campaign event on Thursday (June 18) of his NASHVILLETOGETHER Vision Booklet. The piece is being pushed as “bringing fresh, innovative and collaborative ideas to the race.”
You can link to the booklet here: http://www.kaneformayor.com/vision
The Vision piece clearly appears to be a “breakout effort” by Kane who wants to be sure voters don’t see him as just an education candidate (because of his high profile involvement with the LEAD Charter schools). To that end, Kane also told THE TENNESSEAN (June 18) his campaign is beginning television advertising again to “give the voters the familiarity they need to move him from a top debater to a top candidate.” The ads start next week.
This week (Thursday) also marked the last televised debate among the candidates (sponsored by THE TENNESSEAN and WSMV-TV and hosted by Belmont University). The focus of the debate was among the younger millennium voters that Kane and all the other candidates want to attract. In fact, the debate was done in a town hall format and all the questions were offered by young people.
All the candidates, as before, did a credible job for the most part and basically stuck to their previous campaign themes and strengths. Of course, both before and afterwards, they are all pushing out e-mails urging supporters to vote early and often in the on-line poll conducted by the newspaper to determine who “won” the debate. For what it’s worth, Freeman won the TENNESSEAN poll, 27% to 25% over Bone, followed by Barry (17%), Kane (13%), Rebrovick (8%), Fox (6%) and Gentry (4%).
During the debate itself, nobody broke any new ground or went on the offensive. Four of them (Bone, Fox, Gentry and Barry) did get after Freeman for saying again Nashville needs to change the “community conversation” that Metro Schools are failing. Freeman also took some pushback (from Gentry) for his comments that the tragic church shootings in South Carolina this week were the result of mental illness. Freeman raised questions about how people suffering from those challenges could be allowed to buy guns.
Freeman’s comments also caused some post-debate head scratching as the details of the horrible South Carolina church murders continue to unfold. Upon a request from THE NASHVILLE SCENE’s PITH IN THE WIND blog site, Freeman clarified his comments says it’s now clear the shootings were “racially motivated.” The candidate stuck by his comments concerning the mentally ill being able to purchase guns.
During the debate, there was again a question of who each candidate might support for mayor if they weren’t running themselves. Three dodged an answer, but four made a response (Fox for Kane, Kane for Gentry, Gentry for Fox and Freeman for Rebrovick). I feel a bit responsible for that question. I think I asked it first at the Downtown Rotary forum (the question actually was suggested by a club member).
It always gets a laugh from the audience but it has a serious side to it. Assuming there will be a September runoff, five of these candidates will have to make that choice because they didn’t make the final two. And their choices could be critical to who wins the race and becomes our next mayor.
The Freeman campaign late this week also began a new push to attract female voters. That includes a blast e-mail to supporters written by his daughter in law and a new TV ad and video with the message: Freeman “will fight for women in Nashville” and he is the “best candidate” for them to support.
You can see the new ad here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZwB5Wumq9Y
Making a direct appeal to certain voter demographics is certainly nothing unusual. Linda Eskind Rebrovick has a “Women for Linda” event next week and Megan Barry has done something similar.
But seeing this particular emphasis on women at this stage of the campaign by Freeman( a campaign reportedly now polling the race weekly) does raise questions of whether the Freeman campaign research detects a need to build or shore up his support among women or to possible prepare the political ground to face a female opponent in the September runoff?
While abortion and right to life issues have little to do with the day to day job of being mayor, the issue came up a few weeks ago when an impromptu video conversation Freeman had with a right to life group made the rounds. Freeman’s comments drew criticism from Megan Barry who raised concerns about his commitment to a women’s right to choose. Freeman says he is “pro-choice” but raising women’s issues certainly opens the door for the discussion of abortion versus pro-life to come up again.
In another development late in the week (Thursday) Bill Freeman announced his campaign’s endorsement by the Fraternal Order of Police. It gives Freeman a clean sweep of support by all four of Metro’s employee groups, the FOP, Firefighters, Service Workers and the Metropolitan Nashville Education Association (MNEA).
Said the FOP President Danny Hale in making the Freeman endorsement: “He is focused on keeping neighborhoods safe and building a collaborative relationship between law enforcement and communities. I have no doubt Bill Freeman is the right person to be mayor.”
TV ADS GO AT LARGE
The use of TV ads isn’t just for mayoral candidates anymore.
Jon Cooper, businessman and younger brother of Congressman Jim Cooper, is one of 26 folks seeking the five open At Large seats on the Metro Council.
Cooper likely already has a leg up on name recognition in the crowded field (thanks to his well-known sibling). Now he’s going to build on that by being the first to go on the air with a TV spot and backing it with a budget of $100,000 (TENNESSEAN June 17). That’s a pretty good dollar investment with the vote less than 6 weeks away.
The commercial touts Cooper as a financial expert who has created and handled complex business projects. The ad stresses he will be a watchdog, a smart manager and someone who will be responsive to neighborhoods.
You can see the spot entitled “Excited” here: https://vimeo.com/upload
Cooper may not be on the air alone for long. THE TENNESSEAN reports At-Large candidate Bob Mendes says he plan TV ads to begin running in July. It would not surprise me to see a few more At Large candidates do some TV as well. I also expect to see one if not both of the vice mayor candidates (Tim Garrett and David Briley) up on the Tube soon in their race. Briley, by the way, got the FOP endorsement.
To win the At-Large seats it takes 10% plus one vote of those cast in August. For the remaining seats not decided, there will be a runoff in September involving twice the number of candidates versus the seats remaining. Those qualifying for the runoff will be picked based on order of finish in August.
Since there are only two vice mayor candidates, the winner will be whoever gets the most votes with no runoff needed.
DAVID FOX ON INSIDE POLITICS
This week on INSIDE POLITICS we host the third of Nashville’s seven mayoral candidates for a one-one, in-depth interview about their candidacy.
Our guest is David Fox. Learn more about his campaign theme “The Nashville Way”; where he stands on the major issues; and his take on the many recent developments and news stories breaking along the campaign trial.
Fox has just recently begun his TV ad effort. In fact, he’s only aired one spot so far. But the candidate says he is “on plan,” and with lots of $$ still in the campaign kitty, look to see him on the Tube a lot beginning fairly soon.
INSIDE POLITICS can be seen several times each weekend on NEWSCHANNEL5 PLUS. Those times include 7:00 p.m. Friday; 5:00 a.m. & 5:30 p.m., Saturday; and 5:00 a.m. & 12:30 p.m. on Sunday. THE PLUS is on Comcast Cable channel 250, Charter Cable channel 182 (note new channel) and on NEWSCHANNEL5’s over-the-air digital channel 5.2.
For those who can’t see the show locally, you can watch it with live streaming video on NEWSCHANNEL5.com. All the mayoral candidate interviews will also be posted in full on line the following week after they air (under the INSIDE POLITICS tab of the NEWSCHANNEL5 PLUS section of NEWSCHANNEL5.com).
Next week our mayoral candidate guest is scheduled to be Charles Robert Bone.
SUMMER TOURS
When Governor Bill Haslam asked Tennessee municipal leaders for their help in lobbying state lawmakers on key issues, he didn’t mean later. He meant right away.
The Governor would like local officials’ support (and I’d guess their attendance) as he mounts a statewide “gas tax tour” later this summer and fall. It’s to educate voters about the options Tennessee faces in funding its highway maintenance and construction. Mr. Haslam is also going to use the “t word” on the tour… a gas tax increase.
That levy has gone up since 1988 and since it’s pegged to per-gallon gas consumption it doesn’t generate nearly the revenue (in terms of ongoing growth) that it used to. That’s because our cars are more fuel-efficient.
Says Governor Haslam: “It won’t be a listening tour. We want to show some things you could do in each community…The reality is we’re going to have to do something and I think we’re going to have to do something while I’m still in office.”
The Governor says other surrounding states are stepping up to deal with the issue (which greatly impacts economic development). That means they’ve already increased their gas tax. But the effort to boost our fuel tax in Tennessee is already drawing opposition and even a competing road tour.
The Americans for Prosperity group (which already helped defeat the Governor’s INSURE TENNESSEE program) reportedly (KNOX BLOGS, June 15) will soon unveil a 60-plus visit tour across the state to oppose any tax hike. Said the Tennessee AFP Director: “Raising gas taxes is hurting the people who need the tax relief the most…..(state government) needs to tighten its belt and look for ways to save before looking for ways to spend.”
I think it’s fair to say Governor Haslam has not be one to seek confrontation while in office. But this time he told reporters when asked by the rival AFP tour: “Bring it on. That’s what democracy is all about.”
OK, this could get interesting.
NO NASHVILLE ON THE PANEL
When you don’t do your homework the right way, you get a failing grade.
In this case for Metro Nashville schools, not following proper procedures is costing the system any representation on the Governor’s recently created Teacher Cabinet.
When I got the news release and the list from the governor’s office of the 18 teachers selected, I noticed Metro was missing. I also noticed nobody from the Chattanooga/Hamilton County area (which is suing the state over funding) was on the list either.
I wasn’t at first sure why those districts were left out. Apparently, says THE TENNESEE JOURNAL (June 19) Hamilton County didn’t offer any nominations. Metro school officials fessed up that they made a mistake. They sent their teacher nominees in by e-mail not by using the Survey Monkey the state requested.
So the new Teachers Cabinet set up by the Governor to better improve communications and collaboration between himself, the Tennessee Department of Education and those serving our young people in the classroom won’t have any voice from one the largest and most diverse school districts in Tennessee.
That’s really too bad and seems a bit extreme in terms of who’s being penalized for misreading an assignment.
Meanwhile the Metro School Board is making the best it can out of another tough situation. For variety of reasons, the Board hasn’t been able to hire a new Schools Director or even identify finalists for the job. Current Director Dr. Jesse Register retires next week.
So the Board is naming an interim Director who will likely serve for the next school year. He’s Chris Henson, the school’s finance guy. He’s done the job before and he will do it well again. But by definition being the interim means keeping the ship afloat; making sure the district is on the pavement and out of the ditch. It probably doesn’t mean any bold new efforts to raise low test scores in failing schools or resolve the ongoing issue over the role of charter schools in Nashville.
Again, that’s unfortunate. But it is what it is.
THE CLOUD RETURNS
Another unfortunate thing on Capitol Hill that happens at least couple of years or so it seems, are legal issues for members of the General Assembly.
The latest involves long time Knoxville Democratic representative Joe Armstrong. He’s charged with using insider knowledge back in 2007. That’s when then Governor Phil Bredesen and the Legislature considered and approved an increase in the cigarette tax.
The federal charges facing Armstrong include fraud and tax evasion. The case against him, as outlined in a grand jury indictment, says Armstrong worked through a cigarette wholesaler to buy $25,000 worth of cigarette stamps. When the tax increase of 42 cents was approved (Armstrong voted for it), the stamps were sold for the new higher stamp price, netting him $500,000 in profit (HUMPHREY ON THE HILL, June 17). The indictment also alleges Armstrong hid his involvement to avoid paying federal income taxes.
Armstrong said in a statement he has been aware of the probe for a number of years and that: “I look forward to addressing these allegations and the truth coming out in the very near future.” He indicated he plans to plead not guilty to the charges.
Armstrong’s accountant, by the way has reportedly already pleaded guilty for his role in the case.
Armstrong has also been honored twice (2006 and 2014) as “Legislator of the Year” by the National Black Caucus of State Legislators. The Tennessee Legislative Black Caucus said in a statement it is “standing by” Armstrong.
THE LOGO CONTROVERSY CONTINUES
Tennessee’s new controversial logo continues to stay in the news. This week it was disclosed TENNESSEAN June 18) that the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office has refused to register the logo for a trademark. The federal officials say the logo is “primarily geographically descriptive” and therefore not eligible for a trademark.
The ruling is appealable and state officials say such appeals are not unusual. The state has a six month to file such appeal which I would think is likely, as is continued controversy about this matter which critics feel is not needed and/or is too expensive ($46,000).
THE ADULTS FINALLY SHOWED UP
Don’t you just love it when after an ongoing, noisy, “my way or the highway” political fight, adults finally show up and reason prevails?
That is what finally happened this week in the white-hot budget spat between the administration of Mayor Karl Dean and the Metro Election Commission. The Commission insisted it needed its full budget request to make several employees full-time rather than part time. Otherwise it would have to cut out all ten of the very popular, Early Voting satellite locations. In fact, the Commission went ahead and voted to delete the early voting sites, creating a lot of unhappiness at the Courthouse and among voters.
The Dean administration always claimed that the Commission had plenty of money to run the election and that no city agency gets everything it requests in the budget. They also criticized the Commission for cutting services (early voting) even before the budget process was complete.
Late last week there was an effort to offer a compromise giving the Election Commission more money (slightly less than $300,000) but still not all the money they wanted. The compromise was, at first, rejected by Election officials, who insisted they needed it all.
But then upon further review, the Election folks realized they hadn’t taken in account the Council’s offer to also consider additional money later in the year. With that, the Commission agreed and now both sides have approved the compromise.
So early voting is saved and your access to suffrage is no longer being held hostage to a budget battle. For now.
It’s also good the Council stepped up and approved a new Metro pay plan that increases the next mayor’s salary by 32% or to $180,000 a year. Since compensation can only be adjusted at the beginning of each term of office, it’s hard to keep things in balance. That includes keeping the mayor’s salary in line with what other cities pay their mayors (Nashville is still well behind). Or, for that matter the mayor’s pay check compared to other top city officials. The current Mayor now makes less than his two top aides, the Finance Director and Deputy Mayor.
So adjusting the mayor’s pay is the adult thing for the Council to do.
On a related topic it appears the new Metro School Director (whoever that turns out to be) will get a bigger pay check than the retiring Director, Dr. Jesse Register. In fact says the NASHVILLE SCENE/ NASHVILLE POST says it could be above $260,000 per year. That likely isn’t out of line with what other school systems of our size pay their directors.
ONE THING I FORGOT
One other election related matter I have forgotten to mention amidst all the news surrounding the mayor’s’ race and the Early Vote battle.
The effort to amend the Metro Charter to “Ban the Box” won’t be on the August ballot because supporters did not get enough valid voters’ signatures on their petitions. The issue of the justice behind immediately closing the door on city job applicants because they checked the box (meaning they’ve been convicted of a crime) needs more community discussion. But that discussion needs to be in the Council for legislation or with the Mayor for an executive order. It doesn’t need to placed, at least now in our city’s constitution.
So that debate can continue. Besides we still have three other charter amendments on the August ballot. Those include two on Council size and/or term limits, while a third mandates at least 40% of city financed construction jobs be filled by Davidson County residents.
It’s a big, complex August ballot for sure.
