NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WTVF) — When it comes to the control of the Tennessee Legislature, our political analyst Pat Nolan thinks it will remain comfortably in Republican hands.
"How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time, and this is a big elephant," said Nolan.
That being said, he thinks both parties have some tight races, where they'll have the chance to flip some seats.
District 75 in Clarksville
Allie Phillips, the Democratic nominee in House District 75 in Clarksville, got national attention for having to seek an abortion out of state. She was told by doctors her child wouldn't survive birth.
She's taking on Republican incumbent Rep. Jeff Burkhart, a former fireman, Clarksville businessman and former Clarksville City Councilmember. Republican insiders think Burkart's seat is likely safe, but Phillips has the advantage when it comes to fundraising.
"She’s outraised her incumbent opponent two to one, is an indication that not only outside money may be coming in, but local money too. That may be a sign of support," said Nolan.
District 67 in Clarksville
Rep. Ronnie Glynn, the Democratic incumbent in the House District 67 race, is a business owner and military veteran. He's being challenged by Republican nominee Jamie Dean Peltz. Peltz works in the healthcare field and volunteers with non-profits in the community.
Glynn only won the 2022 election by about 150 votes, so this race could be razor tight as well.
District 49 in Smyrna
Pat is also watching Smyrna's House District 49 race, where community organizer Luis Mata, who works with the Tennessee Immigrant and Refugee Rights Coalition (TIRRC) won the Democratic nomination. He's challenging Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Sparks, a longtime businessman and former Rutherford County Commissioner.
Smyrna has long been a Republican stronghold, but Nolan wonders if the district may be turning a little more purple.
"Over time, the demographics in that district might become a little more Democratic there," said Nolan.
District 60 in Hermitage/Old Hickory
Former staffer for Republican Speaker of the House Cameron Sexton, Chad Bobo, is the Republican nominee in the Hermitage House District 60 Race. He's taking on Shaundelle Brooks, the mother of Alkilah Desilva, who was tragically killed in the 2018 Waffle House shooting.
There's no incumbent in this race, with longtimeRep. Darren Jernigan deciding to not seek another term and work in Nashville Mayor Freddie O'Connell's administration. But Nolan thinks Brook's appeal for gun safety could be compelling in this race.
"Running around town in Nashville, particularly after what happened in the Covenant shooting, that has a lot of bipartisan elements in it too," he said.
Early Voting in Tennessee ends October 31st. Election Day is Tuesday, November 5th.
